Site Search

Looking for something? Use the search bar below or visit our Resources page.


Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are 3-5 basis points higher to start the day, with no clear catalysts for the move.

The initial reasoning for the move was higher oil prices overnight related to ongoing tensions in the Middle East, but oil prices are actually lower this morning. Over a longer timeframe, front-month oil prices (WTI) touched $57 per barrel in early May, the lowest since February 2021, but have now risen above $72 per barrel. There will be a 20-year Treasury note auction this afternoon, which could be driving some of the yield concession on the long end of the curve today. The Empire Manufacturing Index, which tracks activity in New York state, contracted more than expected in June, falling to -16 from -9.2 the prior month. Both new orders and shipments contracted, but the forward outlook from survey respondents was improved. May retail sales data will be released tomorrow, and the June FOMC meeting wraps up on Wednesday afternoon.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
6/16/2025Empire Manufacturing-6-16-9.2     —
6/17/2025Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.60%     —0.10%     —
6/17/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%     —0.20%     —
6/17/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.20%     —0.10%     —
6/17/2025Retail Sales Control Group0.30%     —-0.20%     —
6/17/2025Import Price Index MoM-0.20%     —0.10%     —
6/17/2025Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.10%     —0.40%     —
6/17/2025Import Price Index YoY0.00%     —0.10%     —
6/17/2025Export Price Index MoM-0.20%     —0.10%     —
6/17/2025Export Price Index YoY     —     —2.00%     —
6/17/2025New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —-16.2     —
6/17/2025Industrial Production MoM0.00%     —0.00%     —
6/17/2025Capacity Utilization77.70%     —77.70%     —
6/17/2025Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.10%     —-0.40%     —
6/17/2025Business Inventories0.00%     —0.10%     —
6/17/2025NAHB Housing Market Index36     —34     —
6/18/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —12.50%     —
6/18/2025Housing Starts1359k     —1361k     —
6/18/2025Building Permits1425k     —1422k     —
6/18/2025Housing Starts MoM-0.20%     —1.60%     —
6/18/2025Building Permits MoM0.20%     —-4.00%     —
6/18/2025Initial Jobless Claims245k     —248k     —
6/18/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —240.25k     —
6/18/2025Continuing Claims1925k     —1956k     —
6/18/2025FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)4.50%     —4.50%     —
6/18/2025FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)4.25%     —4.25%     —
6/18/2025Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate4.40%     —4.40%     —
6/18/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr3.88%     —3.88%     —
6/18/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr3.38%     —3.38%     —
6/18/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs3.13%     —3.13%     —
6/18/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run3.13%     —3.00%     —
6/18/2025Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$161.8b     —
6/18/2025Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$254.3b     —
6/20/2025Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook-1     —-4     —
6/20/2025Leading Index-0.10%     —-1.00%     —
6/23/2025S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —52     —
6/23/2025S&P Global US Services PMI     —     —53.7     —
6/23/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —53     —
6/23/2025Existing Home Sales3.95m     —4.00m     —
6/23/2025Existing Home Sales MoM-1.30%     —-0.50%     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

  Headline Disclaimer

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.

Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.

Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.



Recent Beyond The Headlines


  Headlines RSS
Strategic Partners

Let’s Work Together

ALM First is your agile partner with a trusted history of delivering results.