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Author Jason Haley

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Treasury yields drifted lower overnight amid a modest risk-off tone, and benchmark rates are holding steady following the release of this morning’s data.

May retail sales data was softer than expected, but the report was perhaps not as bad as the headline figures suggest. Topline sales fell 0.9% m/m (-0.6% expected), and ex-autos, sales were down 0.3% m/m (+0.2% expected). However, the control group, used in the GDP calculation, rose 0.4% month-over-month (m/m), which was 0.3% higher than expected. Motor vehicle and parts sales fell 3.5% in May, and spending at restaurants and bars fell 0.9%, the most since early 2023. The pullback in auto spending was likely driven by consumers frontrunning tariffs and was due for a pullback. The control group figure was boosted by gains in furniture, apparel, and sporting goods. In other data, import prices were flat m/m in May vs. expectations of a 0.2% decline, and export prices were much lower than expected (-0.9% vs. -0.2%).

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
6/17/2025Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.60%-0.90%0.10%-0.10%
6/17/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%-0.10%0.20%0.10%
6/17/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.20%-0.30%0.10%0.00%
6/17/2025Retail Sales Control Group0.30%0.40%-0.20%-0.10%
6/17/2025Import Price Index MoM-0.20%0.00%0.10%     —
6/17/2025Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.10%0.20%0.40%     —
6/17/2025Import Price Index YoY0.00%0.20%0.10%     —
6/17/2025Export Price Index MoM-0.20%-0.90%0.10%     —
6/17/2025Export Price Index YoY2.50%1.70%2.00%1.90%
6/17/2025New York Fed Services Business Activity     —-13.2-16.2     —
6/17/2025Industrial Production MoM0.00%     —0.00%     —
6/17/2025Capacity Utilization77.70%     —77.70%     —
6/17/2025Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.10%     —-0.40%     —
6/17/2025Business Inventories0.00%     —0.10%     —
6/17/2025NAHB Housing Market Index36     —34     —
6/18/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —12.50%     —
6/18/2025Housing Starts1350k     —1361k     —
6/18/2025Building Permits1425k     —1422k     —
6/18/2025Housing Starts MoM-0.80%     —1.60%     —
6/18/2025Building Permits MoM0.20%     —-4.00%     —
6/18/2025Initial Jobless Claims245k     —248k     —
6/18/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —240.25k     —
6/18/2025Continuing Claims1940k     —1956k     —
6/18/2025FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)4.50%     —4.50%     —
6/18/2025FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)4.25%     —4.25%     —
6/18/2025Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate4.40%     —4.40%     —
6/18/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr4.00%     —3.88%     —
6/18/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr3.38%     —3.38%     —
6/18/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs3.13%     —3.13%     —
6/18/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run3.13%     —3.00%     —
6/18/2025Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$161.8b     —
6/18/2025Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$254.3b     —
6/20/2025Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook-1.5     —-4     —
6/20/2025Leading Index-0.10%     —-1.00%     —
6/23/2025S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —52     —
6/23/2025S&P Global US Services PMI     —     —53.7     —
6/23/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —53     —
6/23/2025Existing Home Sales3.95m     —4.00m     —
6/23/2025Existing Home Sales MoM-1.30%     —-0.50%     —
6/24/2025Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity     —     —-41.9     —
6/24/2025Current Account Balance     —     —-$303.9b     —
6/24/2025FHFA House Price Index MoM     —     —-0.10%     —
6/24/2025S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA     —     —-0.12%     —
6/24/2025S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA     —     —4.07%     —
6/24/2025S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA     —     —3.37%     —
6/24/2025Richmond Fed Manufact. Index     —     —-9     —
6/24/2025Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —-18     —
6/24/2025Conf. Board Consumer Confidence99.8     —98     —
6/24/2025Conf. Board Present Situation     —     —135.9     —
6/24/2025Conf. Board Expectations     —     —72.8     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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