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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are modestly lower again to start the day as the geopolitical risk-off theme remains present.

Attention now shifts to this afternoon’s FOMC decision. Fed leaders have made it abundantly clear that they feel monetary policy is well positioned and that they have no reason to alter it for now. Given that there is essentially zero probability of a rate cut, the focus will instead be on the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and Powell’s press conference. This will be the first SEP released since the announcement of the Liberation Day tariffs, providing an initial look at how Fed leaders are assessing the estimated economic impact of trade policy.

Initial jobless claims were released a day early, given tomorrow’s Juneteenth holiday, and unemployment filings fell slightly to 245,000 last week, as expected. This is the fourth consecutive week of claims in the 240,000 to 250,000 range, which could be a sign of a weakening labor market. We have seen elevated claims during the summer months in prior years, and if this is a true signal, we would need to see this weakness show up in other assessments, such as monthly jobs reports.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
6/18/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —-2.60%12.50%     —
6/18/2025Housing Starts1350k1256k1361k1392k
6/18/2025Building Permits1422k1393k1422k     —
6/18/2025Housing Starts MoM-0.80%-9.80%1.60%2.70%
6/18/2025Building Permits MoM0.00%-2.00%-4.00%     —
6/18/2025Initial Jobless Claims245k245k248k250k
6/18/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —245.50k240.25k240.75k
6/18/2025Continuing Claims1941k1945k1956k1951k
6/18/2025FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)4.50%     —4.50%     —
6/18/2025FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)4.25%     —4.25%     —
6/18/2025Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate4.40%     —4.40%     —
6/18/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr3.94%     —3.88%     —
6/18/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr3.38%     —3.38%     —
6/18/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs3.13%     —3.13%     —
6/18/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run3.13%     —3.00%     —
6/18/2025Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$161.8b     —
6/18/2025Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$254.3b     —
6/20/2025Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook-1.5     —-4     —
6/20/2025Leading Index-0.10%     —-1.00%     —
6/23/2025S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —52     —
6/23/2025S&P Global US Services PMI     —     —53.7     —
6/23/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —53     —
6/23/2025Existing Home Sales3.95m     —4.00m     —
6/23/2025Existing Home Sales MoM-1.30%     —-0.50%     —
6/24/2025Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity     —     —-41.9     —
6/24/2025Current Account Balance     —     —-$303.9b     —
6/24/2025FHFA House Price Index MoM     —     —-0.10%     —
6/24/2025S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA     —     —-0.12%     —
6/24/2025S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA     —     —4.07%     —
6/24/2025S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA     —     —3.37%     —
6/24/2025Richmond Fed Manufact. Index     —     —-9     —
6/24/2025Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —-18     —
6/24/2025Conf. Board Consumer Confidence99.4     —98     —
6/24/2025Conf. Board Present Situation     —     —135.9     —
6/24/2025Conf. Board Expectations     —     —72.8     —
6/25/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-2.60%     —
6/25/2025New Home Sales695k     —743k     —
6/25/2025New Home Sales MoM-6.50%     —10.90%     —
6/25/2025Building Permits     —     —1393k     —
6/25/2025Building Permits MoM     —     —-2.00%     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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