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Author Jason Haley

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Treasury yields are higher and steeper to start the day, due in part to easing geopolitical worries.

2-5 basis points higher to begin the day on easing worries. President Trump is allowing for a 2-week timeframe to decide on direct U.S. involvement in a war on Iran, but speculation is building that the president is leaning toward staying out of it. There were no real surprises from Wednesday’s FOMC decision. The official statement had only modest changes, essentially conveying what markets have acknowledged over the last several weeks, that the worst-case trade scenario appears off the table for now. The median participant forecast for 2025 and 2026 GDP was lower compared to March, while forecasts for unemployment and inflation were adjusted modestly higher. The median forecast for the fed funds rate was unchanged for 2025 (2 rate cuts), while the 2026 forecast went from 2 more rate cuts to just one.

In the press conference, Powell was clear in his suggestion that the Fed still expects prices of goods to increase significantly over the summer due to tariffs, as retailers work through inflated inventories built up earlier this year in anticipation of White House policies. In summary, the Fed seems content to remain in a holding pattern until the economic impact of tariffs, the budget bill, and immigration policies becomes clearer, particularly while the labor market remains relatively robust.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
6/20/2025Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook-1.5-4-4     —
6/20/2025Leading Index-0.10%     —-1.00%     —
6/23/2025S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI51     —52     —
6/23/2025S&P Global US Services PMI52.9     —53.7     —
6/23/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —53     —
6/23/2025Existing Home Sales3.95m     —4.00m     —
6/23/2025Existing Home Sales MoM-1.30%     —-0.50%     —
6/24/2025Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity     —     —-41.9     —
6/24/2025Current Account Balance-$445.5b     —-$303.9b     —
6/24/2025FHFA House Price Index MoM     —     —-0.10%     —
6/24/2025S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA     —     —-0.12%     —
6/24/2025S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA     —     —4.07%     —
6/24/2025S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA     —     —3.37%     —
6/24/2025Richmond Fed Manufact. Index     —     —-9     —
6/24/2025Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —-18     —
6/24/2025Conf. Board Consumer Confidence99     —98     —
6/24/2025Conf. Board Present Situation     —     —135.9     —
6/24/2025Conf. Board Expectations     —     —72.8     —
6/25/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-2.60%     —
6/25/2025New Home Sales693k     —743k     —
6/25/2025New Home Sales MoM-6.70%     —10.90%     —
6/25/2025Building Permits     —     —1393k     —
6/25/2025Building Permits MoM     —     —-2.00%     —
6/26/2025Advance Goods Trade Balance-$92.0b     —-$87.6b-$87.0b
6/26/2025Advance Goods Exports MoM SA     —     —3.40%3.50%
6/26/2025Advance Goods Imports MoM SA     —     —-19.80%-19.90%
6/26/2025Wholesale Inventories MoM     —     —0.20%     —
6/26/2025Retail Inventories MoM     —     —-0.10%     —
6/26/2025GDP Annualized QoQ-0.20%     —-0.20%     —
6/26/2025Personal Consumption     —     —1.20%     —
6/26/2025GDP Price Index3.70%     —3.70%     —
6/26/2025Core PCE Price Index QoQ     —     —3.40%     —
6/26/2025Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index     —     —-0.25     —
6/26/2025Durable Goods Orders6.90%     —-6.30%     —
6/26/2025Durables Ex Transportation0.00%     —0.20%     —
6/26/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —-1.50%     —
6/26/2025Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —-0.10%     —
6/26/2025Initial Jobless Claims248k     —245k     —
6/26/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —245.50k     —
6/26/2025Continuing Claims     —     —1945k     —
6/26/2025Pending Home Sales MoM0.00%     —-6.30%     —
6/26/2025Pending Home Sales NSA YoY     —     —-3.50%     —
6/26/2025Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity     —     —-3     —
6/27/2025Personal Income0.20%     —0.80%     —
6/27/2025Personal Spending0.20%     —0.20%     —
6/27/2025Real Personal Spending     —     —0.10%     —
6/27/2025PCE Price Index MoM0.10%     —0.10%     —
6/27/2025PCE Price Index YoY2.30%     —2.10%     —
6/27/2025Core PCE Price Index MoM0.10%     —0.10%     —
6/27/2025Core PCE Price Index YoY2.60%     —2.50%     —
6/27/2025Bloomberg June United States Economic Survey    
6/27/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment60.5     —60.5     —
6/27/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions     —     —63.7     —
6/27/2025U. of Mich. Expectations     —     —58.4     —
6/27/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation     —     —5.10%     —
6/27/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation     —     —4.10%     —
6/27/2025Kansas City Fed Services Activity     —     —11     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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