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Author Hafizan Hamzah

Published

Estimated

Stocks are up while oil fell following a fragile truce between Israel and Iran.

Futures on the Dow are up 0.71% and the S&P is up 0.87%, while both Brent and WTI are down roughly 3.5%. Iran’s retaliation yesterday only struck military targets, leaving oil supplies untouched, which spurred a cautious round of optimism. The ceasefire that followed is on tenuous footing, but the market remains optimistic that it will hold based on comments made by President Trump.

Fed Chair Powell will speak before Congress today and tomorrow and is likely to be asked why the central bank held rates steady. Powell probably won’t deviate from his comments last week, where he said that the Fed was “well positioned to wait and learn more about the likely course of the economy”.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
6/24/2025Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity     —-25-41.9     —
6/24/2025Current Account Balance-$445.5b-$450.2b-$303.9b-$312.0b
6/24/2025FHFA House Price Index MoM0.00%     —-0.10%     —
6/24/2025S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA-0.02%     —-0.12%     —
6/24/2025S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA3.90%     —4.07%     —
6/24/2025S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA     —     —3.37%     —
6/24/2025Richmond Fed Manufact. Index-10     —-9     —
6/24/2025Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —-18     —
6/24/2025Conf. Board Consumer Confidence99.8     —98     —
6/24/2025Conf. Board Present Situation     —     —135.9     —
6/24/2025Conf. Board Expectations     —     —72.8     —
6/25/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-2.60%     —
6/25/2025New Home Sales694k     —743k     —
6/25/2025New Home Sales MoM-6.60%     —10.90%     —
6/25/2025Building Permits1393k     —1393k     —
6/25/2025Building Permits MoM0.00%     —-2.00%     —
6/26/2025Advance Goods Trade Balance-$85.8b     —-$87.6b-$87.0b
6/26/2025Advance Goods Exports MoM SA     —     —3.40%3.50%
6/26/2025Advance Goods Imports MoM SA     —     —-19.80%-19.90%
6/26/2025Wholesale Inventories MoM0.10%     —0.20%     —
6/26/2025Retail Inventories MoM-0.10%     —-0.10%     —
6/26/2025GDP Annualized QoQ-0.20%     —-0.20%     —
6/26/2025Personal Consumption1.20%     —1.20%     —
6/26/2025GDP Price Index3.70%     —3.70%     —
6/26/2025Core PCE Price Index QoQ3.40%     —3.40%     —
6/26/2025Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index-0.3     —-0.25     —
6/26/2025Durable Goods Orders8.50%     —-6.30%     —
6/26/2025Durables Ex Transportation0.00%     —0.20%     —
6/26/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-0.10%     —-1.50%     —
6/26/2025Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-0.20%     —-0.10%     —
6/26/2025Initial Jobless Claims243k     —245k     —
6/26/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —245.50k     —
6/26/2025Continuing Claims1950k     —1945k     —
6/26/2025Pending Home Sales MoM0.20%     —-6.30%     —
6/26/2025Pending Home Sales NSA YoY     —     —-3.50%     —
6/26/2025Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity     —     —-3     —
6/27/2025Personal Income0.30%     —0.80%     —
6/27/2025Personal Spending0.10%     —0.20%     —
6/27/2025Real Personal Spending0.00%     —0.10%     —
6/27/2025PCE Price Index MoM0.10%     —0.10%     —
6/27/2025PCE Price Index YoY2.30%     —2.10%     —
6/27/2025Core PCE Price Index MoM0.10%     —0.10%     —
6/27/2025Core PCE Price Index YoY2.60%     —2.50%     —
6/27/2025Bloomberg June United States Economic Survey    
6/27/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment60.5     —60.5     —
6/27/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions     —     —63.7     —
6/27/2025U. of Mich. Expectations     —     —58.4     —
6/27/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation     —     —5.10%     —
6/27/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation4.10%     —4.10%     —
6/27/2025Kansas City Fed Services Activity     —     —11     —
6/30/2025MNI Chicago PMI     —     —40.5     —
6/30/2025Dallas Fed Manf. Activity     —     —-15.3     —
7/1/2025S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —52     —
7/1/2025ISM Manufacturing48.7     —48.5     —
7/1/2025ISM Prices Paid     —     —69.4     —
7/1/2025ISM New Orders     —     —47.6     —
7/1/2025ISM Employment     —     —46.8     —
7/1/2025Construction Spending MoM     —     —-0.40%     —
7/1/2025JOLTS Job Openings     —     —7391k     —
7/1/2025JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.40%     —
7/1/2025JOLTS Quits Level     —     —3194k     —
7/1/2025JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —2.00%     —
7/1/2025JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —1786k     —
7/1/2025JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.10%     —
7/1/2025Dallas Fed Services Activity     —     —-10.1     —
7/1/2025Wards Total Vehicle Sales     —     —15.65m     —

Hafizan Hamzah

Senior Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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