Treasuries are rallying this morning with yields in the belly and long-end 2 to 3 bps lower.
In her speech yesterday, Fed Governor Bowman expressed caution regarding rate cuts, saying that “we are still not yet at the point where it is appropriate to lower the policy rate”. Governor Bowman noted that there are still “risks and uncertainties” in her economic outlook which give her pause when considering more accommodative Fed policy.
Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 06/25/24 | Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity | — | 2.9 | -0.6 | — |
| 06/25/24 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | -0.25 | 0.18 | -0.23 | -0.26 |
| 06/25/24 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.00% |
| 06/25/24 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.30% | 0.38% | 0.33% | 0.32% |
| 06/25/24 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | 6.29% | 6.49% | 6.52% |
| 06/25/24 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 7.00% | 7.20% | 7.38% | 7.46% |
| 06/25/24 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 100 | — | 102 | — |
| 06/25/24 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 143.1 | — |
| 06/25/24 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 74.6 | — |
| 06/25/24 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | -3 | — | 0 | — |
| 06/25/24 | Richmond Fed Business Conditions | — | — | -9 | — |
| 06/25/24 | Dallas Fed Services Activity | — | — | -12.1 | — |
| 06/26/24 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 0.90% | — |
| 06/26/24 | New Home Sales | 635k | — | 634k | — |
| 06/26/24 | New Home Sales MoM | 0.20% | — | -4.70% | — |
| 06/27/24 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 1.40% | — | 1.30% | — |
| 06/27/24 | Personal Consumption | 2.00% | — | 2.00% | — |
| 06/27/24 | GDP Price Index | 3.00% | — | 3.00% | — |
| 06/27/24 | Core PCE Price Index QoQ | 3.60% | — | 3.60% | — |
| 06/27/24 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$96.0b | — | -$99.4b | -$98.0b |
| 06/27/24 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 06/27/24 | Retail Inventories MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 06/27/24 | Initial Jobless Claims | 235k | — | 238k | — |
| 06/27/24 | Continuing Claims | 1828k | — | 1828k | — |
| 06/27/24 | Durable Goods Orders | -0.50% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 06/27/24 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.20% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 06/27/24 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.10% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 06/27/24 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.20% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 06/27/24 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 0.60% | — | -7.70% | — |
| 06/27/24 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | — | -0.80% | — |
| 06/27/24 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | -4 | — | -2 | — |
| 06/28/24 | Personal Income | 0.40% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 06/28/24 | Personal Spending | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 06/28/24 | Real Personal Spending | 0.30% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 06/28/24 | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.00% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 06/28/24 | PCE Price Index YoY | 2.60% | — | 2.70% | — |
| 06/28/24 | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 06/28/24 | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 2.60% | — | 2.80% | — |
| 06/28/24 | MNI Chicago PMI | 40 | — | 35.4 | — |
| 06/28/24 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 66 | — | 65.6 | — |
| 06/28/24 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 62.5 | — |
| 06/28/24 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 67.6 | — |
| 06/28/24 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 3.20% | — | 3.30% | — |
| 06/28/24 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.10% | — | 3.10% | — |
| 06/28/24 | Kansas City Fed Services Activity | — | — | 11 | — |
