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Author Hafizan Hamzah

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are close to unchanged following yesterday’s rally that saw the 10-year fall 5 bps.

Yields fell in response to comments made by Fed Chair Powell during his Congressional testimony. Powell largely reiterated comments he made last week, but traders homed in on his statement that tariffs could contribute less to inflation than is currently expected; this, combined with an unexpected drop in consumer confidence, spurred the bond rally.

On the data front, the MBA mortgage applications index came out earlier this morning, and new home sales data will come out a little later. The applications index rose 1.1% last week after falling 2.6% the week before. The uptick was led by a 3% increase in refinancing. The average 30-year rate was up slightly to 6.88% from 6.84%.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
6/25/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —1.10%-2.60%
6/25/2025New Home Sales693k     —743k
6/25/2025New Home Sales MoM-6.70%     —10.90%
6/25/2025Building Permits1393k1394k1393k
6/25/2025Building Permits MoM0.00%-2.00%-2.00%
6/26/2025Advance Goods Trade Balance-$86.1b     —-$87.6b
6/26/2025Advance Goods Exports MoM SA     —     —3.40%
6/26/2025Advance Goods Imports MoM SA     —     —-19.80%
6/26/2025Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%     —0.20%
6/26/2025Retail Inventories MoM-0.10%     —-0.10%
6/26/2025GDP Annualized QoQ-0.20%     —-0.20%
6/26/2025Personal Consumption1.20%     —1.20%
6/26/2025GDP Price Index3.70%     —3.70%
6/26/2025Core PCE Price Index QoQ3.40%     —3.40%
6/26/2025Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index-0.13     —-0.25
6/26/2025Durable Goods Orders8.50%     —-6.30%
6/26/2025Durables Ex Transportation0.00%     —0.20%
6/26/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.10%     —-1.50%
6/26/2025Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-0.20%     —-0.10%
6/26/2025Initial Jobless Claims243k     —245k
6/26/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —245.50k
6/26/2025Continuing Claims1950k     —1945k
6/26/2025Pending Home Sales MoM0.10%     —-6.30%
6/26/2025Pending Home Sales NSA YoY     —     —-3.50%
6/26/2025Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity-5     —-3
6/27/2025Personal Income0.30%     —0.80%
6/27/2025Personal Spending0.10%     —0.20%
6/27/2025Real Personal Spending0.00%     —0.10%
6/27/2025PCE Price Index MoM0.10%     —0.10%
6/27/2025PCE Price Index YoY2.30%     —2.10%
6/27/2025Core PCE Price Index MoM0.10%     —0.10%
6/27/2025Core PCE Price Index YoY2.60%     —2.50%
6/27/2025Bloomberg June United States Economic Survey   
6/27/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment60.5     —60.5
6/27/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions     —     —63.7
6/27/2025U. of Mich. Expectations     —     —58.4
6/27/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation5.10%     —5.10%
6/27/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation4.10%     —4.10%
6/27/2025Kansas City Fed Services Activity     —     —11
6/30/2025MNI Chicago PMI43.1     —40.5
6/30/2025Dallas Fed Manf. Activity     —     —-15.3
7/1/2025S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —52
7/1/2025ISM Manufacturing48.5     —48.5
7/1/2025ISM Prices Paid     —     —69.4
7/1/2025ISM New Orders     —     —47.6
7/1/2025ISM Employment     —     —46.8
7/1/2025Construction Spending MoM0.10%     —-0.40%
7/1/2025JOLTS Job Openings     —     —7391k
7/1/2025JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.40%
7/1/2025JOLTS Quits Level     —     —3194k
7/1/2025JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —2.00%
7/1/2025JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —1786k
7/1/2025JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.10%
7/1/2025Dallas Fed Services Activity     —     —-10.1
7/1/2025Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.48m     —15.65m
7/2/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —1.10%
7/2/2025Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —47.00%
7/2/2025ADP Employment Change     —     —37k

Hafizan Hamzah

Senior Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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