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Author Jason Haley

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Treasury yields are drifting lower on the front-end of the curve following several economic data releases, taking a breather after yesterday’s rally that sent long yields 11 basis points (bps) lower.

Some have questioned the rationale for yesterday’s rally in Treasuries, which sent long yields 11 basis points (bps) lower, and it was likely a mixture of catalysts. A big one is the drop in oil prices to pre-war levels. The 10-year yield has been highly correlated with crude prices since the war began, and the former remains nearly 50 bps above pre-war levels. Some are also attributing part of yesterday’s rally to Fed Chair Wash’s conviction to tackle inflation at last week’s post-FOMC press conference. While that implies some potential rate hikes, it also potentially reduces term premiums required by investors (i.e., more confidence in Fed maintaining price stability). That said, we wouldn’t read too much into any single-day market move, particularly in more volatile (and less predictable) interest rate markets.

For today’s trading, equity futures are higher this morning, particularly in the tech sector, after Micron’s noteworthy sales forecast revitalized the AI trade. On the data front, personal income and spending exceeded expectations in May. Headline PCE inflation was slightly below expectations, but the core index was in line with expectations at 0.3% m/m and 3.4% y/y, still well above the Fed’s 2% target. Initial jobless claims fell back to 215,000 last week after matching the YTD high two weeks ago.  The May durable goods report showed stronger capital expenditures relative to expectations, and the third estimate of Q1 GDP was revised higher to 2.1%. While topline growth was higher, the estimate of consumer spending was lowered from 1.4% to 0.5%.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
6/25/2026Personal Income0.40%0.70%0.00%     —
6/25/2026Personal Spending0.60%0.70%0.50%0.40%
6/25/2026Real Personal Spending0.20%0.30%0.10%0.00%
6/25/2026PCE Price Index MoM0.50%0.40%0.40%     —
6/25/2026PCE Price Index YoY4.10%4.10%3.80%     —
6/25/2026Core PCE Price Index MoM0.30%0.30%0.20%0.30%
6/25/2026Core PCE Price Index YoY3.40%3.40%3.30%     —
6/25/2026GDP Annualized QoQ1.60%2.10%1.60%     —
6/25/2026Personal Consumption1.40%0.50%1.40%     —
6/25/2026GDP Price Index3.50%3.60%3.50%     —
6/25/2026Core PCE Price Index QoQ4.40%4.40%4.40%     —
6/25/2026Initial Jobless Claims225k215k226k227k
6/25/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —224.25k223.25k223.50k
6/25/2026Continuing Claims1802k1821k1810k1800k
6/25/2026Durable Goods Orders-5.00%-4.50%8.00%8.50%
6/25/2026Durables Ex Transportation0.60%1.30%1.10%1.40%
6/25/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.60%1.60%-1.00%-0.70%
6/25/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.30%0.40%0.50%
6/25/2026Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.15-0.10.140.19
6/25/2026Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity6     —8     —
6/26/2026Bloomberg June United States Economic Survey    
6/26/2026Advance Goods Trade Balance-$85.0b     —-$82.4b-$83.0b
6/26/2026Advance Goods Imports MoM SA2.10%     —1.90%2.00%
6/26/2026Advance Goods Exports MoM SA2.10%     —4.00%3.80%
6/26/2026Retail Inventories MoM0.50%     —0.70%     —
6/26/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM0.40%     —0.60%     —
6/26/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment50     —48.9     —
6/26/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions48.8     —48.4     —
6/26/2026U. of Mich. Expectations49.5     —49.3     —
6/26/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.60%     —4.60%     —
6/26/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.30%     —3.40%     —
6/26/2026Kansas City Fed Services Activity     —     —10     —
6/29/2026Dallas Fed Manf. Activity     —     —0.4     —
6/30/2026FHFA House Price Index MoM     —     —0.10%     —
6/30/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA     —     —-0.16%     —
6/30/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA     —     —0.83%     —
6/30/2026S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA     —     —0.67%     —
6/30/2026MNI Chicago PMI     —     —62.7     —
6/30/2026Conf. Board Consumer Confidence94.2     —93.1     —
6/30/2026Conf. Board Present Situation     —     —121.2     —
6/30/2026Conf. Board Expectations     —     —74.4     —
6/30/2026JOLTS Job Openings7360k     —7618k     —
6/30/2026JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.60%     —
6/30/2026JOLTS Quits Level     —     —2977k     —
6/30/2026JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —1.90%     —
6/30/2026JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —1692k     —
6/30/2026JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.10%     —
6/30/2026Dallas Fed Services Activity     —     —-7.7     —
7/1/2026Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —3.40%     —
7/1/2026Challenger Job Cuts Total     —     —97006     —
7/1/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —1.00%     —
7/1/2026ADP Employment Change110k     —122k     —
7/1/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —55.7     —
7/1/2026ISM Manufacturing53.8     —54     —
7/1/2026ISM Prices Paid     —     —82.1     —
7/1/2026ISM New Orders     —     —56.8     —
7/1/2026ISM Employment     —     —48.6     —
7/1/2026Construction Spending MoM     —     —0.40%     —
7/01/2026Omdia Total Vehicle Sales     —     —16.08m     —
7/2/2026Change in Nonfarm Payrolls130k     —172k     —
7/2/2026Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —93k     —
7/2/2026Change in Private Payrolls123k     —120k     —
7/2/2026Change in Manufact. Payrolls4k     —7k     —
7/2/2026Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —188k     —
7/2/2026Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.30%     —
7/2/2026Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.50%     —3.40%     —
7/2/2026Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3     —34.3     —
7/2/2026Unemployment Rate4.30%     —4.30%     —
7/2/2026Labor Force Participation Rate61.80%     —61.80%     —
7/2/2026Underemployment Rate     —     —8.10%     —
7/2/2026Initial Jobless Claims     —     —215k     —
7/2/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —224.25k     —
7/2/2026Continuing Claims     —     —1821k     —
7/2/2026Factory Orders     —     —4.80%     —
7/2/2026Factory Orders Ex Trans     —     —1.30%     —
7/2/2026Durable Goods Orders     —     —-4.50%     —
7/2/2026Durables Ex Transportation     —     —1.30%     —
7/2/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —1.60%     —
7/2/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.30%     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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