Site Search

Looking for something? Use the search bar below or visit our Resources page.


Author Hafizan Hamzah

Published

Estimated

The front-end and belly of the curve are 2 to 4 bps lower this morning as the market digests a mixed bag of economic data.

Initial jobless claims came in lower than expected at 236k vs 243k, but continuing claims came in higher than expected at 1,974k vs 1,950k, hitting its highest level since November of 2021. The durable goods orders reading was very strong at +16.4% (8.5% expected). The trade deficit widened in May as exports fell by 5.2% while imports were essentially flat on the month.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
6/26/2025Advance Goods Trade Balance-$86.1b-$96.6b-$87.6b
6/26/2025Advance Goods Exports MoM SA     —-5.20%3.40%
6/26/2025Advance Goods Imports MoM SA     —0.00%-19.80%
6/26/2025Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%-0.30%0.20%
6/26/2025Retail Inventories MoM-0.10%0.30%-0.10%
6/26/2025GDP Annualized QoQ-0.20%-0.50%-0.20%
6/26/2025Personal Consumption1.20%0.50%1.20%
6/26/2025GDP Price Index3.70%3.80%3.70%
6/26/2025Core PCE Price Index QoQ3.40%3.50%3.40%
6/26/2025Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index-0.13-0.28-0.25
6/26/2025Durable Goods Orders8.50%16.40%-6.30%
6/26/2025Durables Ex Transportation0.00%0.50%0.20%
6/26/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.10%1.70%-1.50%
6/26/2025Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-0.10%0.50%-0.10%
6/26/2025Initial Jobless Claims243k236k245k
6/26/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —245.00k245.50k
6/26/2025Continuing Claims1950k1974k1945k
6/26/2025Pending Home Sales MoM0.10%     —-6.30%
6/26/2025Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-0.40%     —-3.50%
6/26/2025Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity-5     —-3
6/27/2025Personal Income0.30%     —0.80%
6/27/2025Personal Spending0.10%     —0.20%
6/27/2025Real Personal Spending0.00%     —0.10%
6/27/2025PCE Price Index MoM0.10%     —0.10%
6/27/2025PCE Price Index YoY2.30%     —2.10%
6/27/2025Core PCE Price Index MoM0.10%     —0.10%
6/27/2025Core PCE Price Index YoY2.60%     —2.50%
6/27/2025Bloomberg June United States Economic Survey   
6/27/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment60.5     —60.5
6/27/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions63.2     —63.7
6/27/2025U. of Mich. Expectations     —     —58.4
6/27/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation5.20%     —5.10%
6/27/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation4.10%     —4.10%
6/27/2025Kansas City Fed Services Activity     —     —11
6/30/2025MNI Chicago PMI42.8     —40.5
6/30/2025Dallas Fed Manf. Activity     —     —-15.3
7/1/2025S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —52
7/1/2025ISM Manufacturing48.5     —48.5
7/1/2025ISM Prices Paid     —     —69.4
7/1/2025ISM New Orders     —     —47.6
7/1/2025ISM Employment     —     —46.8
7/1/2025Construction Spending MoM0.10%     —-0.40%
7/1/2025JOLTS Job Openings     —     —7391k
7/1/2025JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.40%
7/1/2025JOLTS Quits Level     —     —3194k
7/1/2025JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —2.00%
7/1/2025JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —1786k
7/1/2025JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.10%
7/1/2025Dallas Fed Services Activity     —     —-10.1
7/1/2025Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.48m     —15.65m
7/2/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —1.10%
7/2/2025Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —47.00%
7/2/2025ADP Employment Change     —     —37k
7/3/2025Trade Balance-$67.2b     —-$61.6b
7/3/2025Change in Nonfarm Payrolls116k     —139k
7/3/2025Change in Private Payrolls118k     —140k
7/3/2025Change in Manufact. Payrolls     —     —-8k
7/3/2025Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —135k
7/3/2025Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —-95k
7/3/2025Unemployment Rate4.30%     —4.20%
7/3/2025Labor Force Participation Rate     —     —62.40%
7/3/2025Underemployment Rate     —     —7.80%
7/3/2025Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.40%
7/3/2025Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.90%     —3.90%
7/3/2025Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3     —34.3
7/3/2025Initial Jobless Claims     —     —236k
7/3/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —245.00k
7/3/2025Continuing Claims     —     —1974k
7/3/2025S&P Global US Services PMI     —     —53.1
7/3/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —52.8
7/3/2025Factory Orders     —     —-3.70%
7/3/2025Factory Orders Ex Trans     —     —-0.50%
7/3/2025ISM Services Index50.4     —49.9
7/3/2025ISM Services Prices Paid     —     —68.7
7/3/2025ISM Services New Orders     —     —46.4
7/3/2025ISM Services Employment     —     —50.7
7/3/2025Durable Goods Orders     —     —16.40%
7/3/2025Durables Ex Transportation     —     —0.50%
7/3/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —1.70%
7/3/2025Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.50%

Hafizan Hamzah

Senior Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

  Headline Disclaimer

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.

Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.

Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.



Recent Beyond The Headlines


  Headlines RSS
Strategic Partners

Let’s Work Together

ALM First is your agile partner with a trusted history of delivering results.