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Author Jason Haley

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Estimated

Treasuries are slightly better bid this morning amid a weaker risk tone.

AI worries weighed on stocks again overnight with news that OpenAI plans to delay its IPO until 2027. According to a New York Times article, bankers are advising the company that recent volatility in tech stocks and the price action in SpaceX following its IPO could soften overall demand for another major new issue. S&P 500 futures are down 0.4%, and more tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 futures are down -1.1% a little less than an hour before the open. The data calendar is relatively light today, and only one Fed leader (Kashkari) is scheduled to speak today.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
6/26/2026Bloomberg June United States Economic Survey    
6/26/2026Advance Goods Trade Balance-$85.0b-$105.8b-$82.4b-$83.0b
6/26/2026Advance Goods Imports MoM SA2.10%3.60%1.90%2.00%
6/26/2026Advance Goods Exports MoM SA2.10%-5.40%4.00%3.80%
6/26/2026Retail Inventories MoM0.50%0.60%0.70%     —
6/26/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM0.40%0.30%0.60%0.70%
6/26/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment50     —48.9     —
6/26/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions49     —48.4     —
6/26/2026U. of Mich. Expectations49.6     —49.3     —
6/26/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.60%     —4.60%     —
6/26/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.30%     —3.40%     —
6/26/2026Kansas City Fed Services Activity8     —10     —
6/29/2026Dallas Fed Manf. Activity     —     —0.4     —
6/30/2026FHFA House Price Index MoM     —     —0.10%     —
6/30/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA     —     —-0.16%     —
6/30/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA     —     —0.83%     —
6/30/2026S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA     —     —0.67%     —
6/30/2026MNI Chicago PMI     —     —62.7     —
6/30/2026Conf. Board Consumer Confidence94.3     —93.1     —
6/30/2026Conf. Board Present Situation     —     —121.2     —
6/30/2026Conf. Board Expectations     —     —74.4     —
6/30/2026JOLTS Job Openings7275k     —7618k     —
6/30/2026JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.60%     —
6/30/2026JOLTS Quits Level     —     —2977k     —
6/30/2026JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —1.90%     —
6/30/2026JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —1692k     —
6/30/2026JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.10%     —
6/30/2026Dallas Fed Services Activity     —     —-7.7     —
7/1/2026Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —3.40%     —
7/1/2026Challenger Job Cuts Total     —     —97006     —
7/1/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —1.00%     —
7/1/2026ADP Employment Change118k     —122k     —
7/1/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —55.7     —
7/1/2026ISM Manufacturing53.8     —54     —
7/1/2026ISM Prices Paid79     —82.1     —
7/1/2026ISM New Orders     —     —56.8     —
7/1/2026ISM Employment     —     —48.6     —
7/1/2026Construction Spending MoM     —     —0.40%     —
7/01/2026Omdia Total Vehicle Sales16.00m     —16.08m     —
7/2/2026Change in Nonfarm Payrolls115k     —172k     —
7/2/2026Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —93k     —
7/2/2026Change in Private Payrolls125k     —120k     —
7/2/2026Change in Manufact. Payrolls4k     —7k     —
7/2/2026Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —188k     —
7/2/2026Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.30%     —
7/2/2026Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.50%     —3.40%     —
7/2/2026Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3     —34.3     —
7/2/2026Unemployment Rate4.30%     —4.30%     —
7/2/2026Labor Force Participation Rate61.80%     —61.80%     —
7/2/2026Underemployment Rate     —     —8.10%     —
7/2/2026Initial Jobless Claims220k     —215k     —
7/2/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —224.25k     —
7/2/2026Continuing Claims     —     —1821k     —
7/2/2026Factory Orders     —     —4.80%     —
7/2/2026Factory Orders Ex Trans     —     —1.30%     —
7/2/2026Durable Goods Orders     —     —-4.50%     —
7/2/2026Durables Ex Transportation     —     —1.30%     —
7/2/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —1.60%     —
7/2/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.30%     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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