1st quarter GDP was revised higher to 1.4%, matching expectations, while initial jobless claims came in lower than expected at 233,000.
Net exports was a major driver of the upward revision, moving from -0.9% up to -0.65%. Government consumption also increased in the final estimate of Q1 GDP, moving from 1.3% to 1.8% annualized, while personal consumption fell to 1.5% from 2.0%. So all-in-all, it was a bit of a mixed bag.
Though initial jobless claims came in lower than expected, continuing claims rose to 1.84 million, its highest level since the end of 2021. Recent labor data has shown signs of a cooldown suggesting that it may be close to normalization.
Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 06/27/24 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 1.40% | 1.40% | 1.30% | — |
| 06/27/24 | Personal Consumption | 2.00% | 1.50% | 2.00% | — |
| 06/27/24 | GDP Price Index | 3.00% | 3.10% | 3.00% | — |
| 06/27/24 | Core PCE Price Index QoQ | 3.60% | 3.70% | 3.60% | — |
| 06/27/24 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$96.0b | -$100.6b | -$99.4b | -$98.0b |
| 06/27/24 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.10% | 0.60% | 0.10% | 0.20% |
| 06/27/24 | Retail Inventories MoM | 0.30% | 0.70% | 0.70% | — |
| 06/27/24 | Initial Jobless Claims | 235k | 233k | 238k | 239k |
| 06/27/24 | Continuing Claims | 1828k | 1839k | 1828k | 1821k |
| 06/27/24 | Durable Goods Orders | -0.50% | 0.10% | 0.60% | 0.20% |
| 06/27/24 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.20% | -0.10% | 0.40% | — |
| 06/27/24 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.10% | -0.60% | 0.20% | 0.30% |
| 06/27/24 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.20% | -0.50% | 0.40% | — |
| 06/27/24 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 0.50% | — | -7.70% | — |
| 06/27/24 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | -4.60% | — | -0.80% | — |
| 06/27/24 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | -5 | — | -2 | — |
| 06/28/24 | Personal Income | 0.40% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 06/28/24 | Personal Spending | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 06/28/24 | Real Personal Spending | 0.30% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 06/28/24 | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.00% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 06/28/24 | PCE Price Index YoY | 2.60% | — | 2.70% | — |
| 06/28/24 | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 06/28/24 | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 2.60% | — | 2.80% | — |
| 06/28/24 | MNI Chicago PMI | 40 | — | 35.4 | — |
| 06/28/24 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 66 | — | 65.6 | — |
| 06/28/24 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 64 | — | 62.5 | — |
| 06/28/24 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 68 | — | 67.6 | — |
| 06/28/24 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 3.20% | — | 3.30% | — |
| 06/28/24 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.10% | — | 3.10% | — |
| 06/28/24 | Kansas City Fed Services Activity | — | — | 11 | — |
