Treasury yields were modestly higher overnight, leading up to this morning’s data releases.
Personal income and spending were both lower than expected in May. Income was down 0.4% versus expectations of a 0.3% gain, including a 0.6% decline in disposable income (income minus taxes). Wages and salaries were more normal at +0.4% m/m, but government transfer payments fell 2.2%, including a 7.3% decline in social security income. Real personal spending fell 0.3% m/m in May versus expectations of a flat monthly reading, the weakest reading since January. The pullback in spending was likely related to consumers pulling some spending forward in prior months ahead of tariffs on certain goods (e.g., autos), but softer spending on services (-0.03% m/m) is perhaps more of a concern. The market response to this morning’s data has been somewhat muted, given the noise potentially affecting monthly data readings in recent months.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior |
| 6/27/2025 | Personal Income | 0.30% | -0.40% | 0.80% |
| 6/27/2025 | Personal Spending | 0.10% | -0.10% | 0.20% |
| 6/27/2025 | Real Personal Spending | 0.00% | -0.30% | 0.10% |
| 6/27/2025 | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% |
| 6/27/2025 | PCE Price Index YoY | 2.30% | 2.30% | 2.10% |
| 6/27/2025 | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.10% | 0.20% | 0.10% |
| 6/27/2025 | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 2.60% | 2.70% | 2.50% |
| 6/27/2025 | Bloomberg June United States Economic Survey | |||
| 6/27/2025 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 60.5 | — | 60.5 |
| 6/27/2025 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 63.2 | — | 63.7 |
| 6/27/2025 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 58.4 |
| 6/27/2025 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 5.20% | — | 5.10% |
| 6/27/2025 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 4.10% | — | 4.10% |
| 6/27/2025 | Kansas City Fed Services Activity | — | — | 11 |
| 6/30/2025 | MNI Chicago PMI | 43 | — | 40.5 |
| 6/30/2025 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | -14 | — | -15.3 |
| 7/1/2025 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 52 | — | 52 |
| 7/1/2025 | ISM Manufacturing | 48.8 | — | 48.5 |
| 7/1/2025 | ISM Prices Paid | — | — | 69.4 |
| 7/1/2025 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 47.6 |
| 7/1/2025 | ISM Employment | — | — | 46.8 |
| 7/1/2025 | Construction Spending MoM | -0.10% | — | -0.40% |
| 7/1/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings | — | — | 7391k |
| 7/1/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings Rate | — | — | 4.40% |
| 7/1/2025 | JOLTS Quits Level | — | — | 3194k |
| 7/1/2025 | JOLTS Quits Rate | — | — | 2.00% |
| 7/1/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Level | — | — | 1786k |
| 7/1/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Rate | — | — | 1.10% |
| 7/1/2025 | Dallas Fed Services Activity | — | — | -10.1 |
| 7/1/2025 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 15.49m | — | 15.65m |
| 7/2/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 1.10% |
| 7/2/2025 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 47.00% |
| 7/2/2025 | ADP Employment Change | 110k | — | 37k |
| 7/3/2025 | Trade Balance | -$69.8b | — | -$61.6b |
| 7/3/2025 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 120k | — | 139k |
| 7/3/2025 | Change in Private Payrolls | 115k | — | 140k |
| 7/3/2025 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | — | — | -8k |
| 7/3/2025 | Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg | — | — | 135k |
| 7/3/2025 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | -95k |
| 7/3/2025 | Unemployment Rate | 4.30% | — | 4.20% |
| 7/3/2025 | Labor Force Participation Rate | — | — | 62.40% |
| 7/3/2025 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.80% |
| 7/3/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% |
| 7/3/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.90% | — | 3.90% |
| 7/3/2025 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.3 | — | 34.3 |
| 7/3/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 236k |
| 7/3/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 245.00k |
| 7/3/2025 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1974k |
| 7/3/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | — | — | 53.1 |
| 7/3/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 52.8 |
| 7/3/2025 | Factory Orders | 7.80% | — | -3.70% |
| 7/3/2025 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | -0.50% |
| 7/3/2025 | ISM Services Index | 50.8 | — | 49.9 |
| 7/3/2025 | ISM Services Prices Paid | — | — | 68.7 |
| 7/3/2025 | ISM Services New Orders | — | — | 46.4 |
| 7/3/2025 | ISM Services Employment | — | — | 50.7 |
| 7/3/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | — | — | 16.40% |
| 7/3/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | 0.50% |
| 7/3/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 1.70% |
| 7/3/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.50% |
