Treasury yields are 2-3 basis points lower to begin the final trading day of Q2.
Outperformance in equity markets so far in June should fuel some month-end rebalancing in balanced investment strategies. The focus for this holiday-shortened week will be on labor market data, as well as ongoing GOP negotiations related to the budget reconciliation bill. The May JOLTS report will be released tomorrow, and the monthly payrolls report will be released a day early on Thursday. The latter is expected to show some moderation in job growth (+113k) and a slight increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. Fed Chair Powell will also make a public appearance this week, participating in a panel discussion with other major central bank heads.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior |
| 6/30/2025 | MNI Chicago PMI | 42.9 | — | 40.5 |
| 6/30/2025 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | -12 | — | -15.3 |
| 7/1/2025 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 52 | — | 52 |
| 7/1/2025 | ISM Manufacturing | 48.7 | — | 48.5 |
| 7/1/2025 | ISM Prices Paid | 69.5 | — | 69.4 |
| 7/1/2025 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 47.6 |
| 7/1/2025 | ISM Employment | — | — | 46.8 |
| 7/1/2025 | Construction Spending MoM | -0.20% | — | -0.40% |
| 7/1/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings | 7300k | — | 7391k |
| 7/1/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings Rate | — | — | 4.40% |
| 7/1/2025 | JOLTS Quits Level | — | — | 3194k |
| 7/1/2025 | JOLTS Quits Rate | — | — | 2.00% |
| 7/1/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Level | — | — | 1786k |
| 7/1/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Rate | — | — | 1.10% |
| 7/1/2025 | Dallas Fed Services Activity | — | — | -10.1 |
| 7/1/2025 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 15.35m | — | 15.65m |
| 7/2/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 1.10% |
| 7/2/2025 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 47.00% |
| 7/2/2025 | ADP Employment Change | 90k | — | 37k |
| 7/3/2025 | Trade Balance | -$71.1b | — | -$61.6b |
| 7/3/2025 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 113k | — | 139k |
| 7/3/2025 | Change in Private Payrolls | 110k | — | 140k |
| 7/3/2025 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | -2k | — | -8k |
| 7/3/2025 | Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg | — | — | 135k |
| 7/3/2025 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | -95k |
| 7/3/2025 | Unemployment Rate | 4.30% | — | 4.20% |
| 7/3/2025 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.50% | — | 62.40% |
| 7/3/2025 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.80% |
| 7/3/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% |
| 7/3/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.80% | — | 3.90% |
| 7/3/2025 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.3 | — | 34.3 |
| 7/3/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 241k | — | 236k |
| 7/3/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 245.00k |
| 7/3/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1950k | — | 1974k |
| 7/3/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 53.1 | — | 53.1 |
| 7/3/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 52.8 |
| 7/3/2025 | Factory Orders | 8.10% | — | -3.70% |
| 7/3/2025 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | -0.50% |
| 7/3/2025 | ISM Services Index | 50.6 | — | 49.9 |
| 7/3/2025 | ISM Services Prices Paid | — | — | 68.7 |
| 7/3/2025 | ISM Services New Orders | — | — | 46.4 |
| 7/3/2025 | ISM Services Employment | — | — | 50.7 |
| 7/3/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | 16.40% | — | 16.40% |
| 7/3/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | 0.50% |
| 7/3/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 1.70% |
| 7/3/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.50% |
