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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are modestly higher following another quiet overnight session.

Things should remain relatively quiet until Thursday morning’s jobs report. In global bond markets, long Japanese bond yields were up more than 10 basis points today amid ongoing fiscal concerns. The Japanese yen is now at the weakest level relative to the US dollar since 1986. Later this morning, April data from S&P/Case Shiller is expected to show a third consecutive monthly decline in its 20-city home price index.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
6/30/2026FHFA House Price Index MoM0.20%     —0.10%     —
6/30/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA-0.10%     —-0.16%     —
6/30/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA0.90%     —0.83%     —
6/30/2026S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA0.80%     —0.67%     —
6/30/2026MNI Chicago PMI55.1     —62.7     —
6/30/2026Conf. Board Consumer Confidence94.4     —93.1     —
6/30/2026Conf. Board Present Situation123     —121.2     —
6/30/2026Conf. Board Expectations75.2     —74.4     —
6/30/2026JOLTS Job Openings7296k     —7618k     —
6/30/2026JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.60%     —
6/30/2026JOLTS Quits Level3007k     —2977k     —
6/30/2026JOLTS Quits Rate1.90%     —1.90%     —
6/30/2026JOLTS Layoffs Level1682k     —1692k     —
6/30/2026JOLTS Layoffs Rate1.10%     —1.10%     —
6/30/2026Dallas Fed Services Activity-5     —-7.7     —
7/1/2026Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —3.40%     —
7/1/2026Challenger Job Cuts Total     —     —97006     —
7/1/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —1.00%     —
7/1/2026ADP Employment Change120k     —122k     —
7/1/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI55.7     —55.7     —
7/1/2026ISM Manufacturing53.8     —54     —
7/1/2026ISM Prices Paid77.8     —82.1     —
7/1/2026ISM New Orders57     —56.8     —
7/1/2026ISM Employment48.8     —48.6     —
7/1/2026Construction Spending MoM0.20%     —0.40%     —
7/01/2026Omdia Total Vehicle Sales16.10m     —16.08m     —
7/2/2026Change in Nonfarm Payrolls110k     —172k     —
7/2/2026Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —93k     —
7/2/2026Change in Private Payrolls115k     —120k     —
7/2/2026Change in Manufact. Payrolls3k     —7k     —
7/2/2026Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —188k     —
7/2/2026Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.30%     —
7/2/2026Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.50%     —3.40%     —
7/2/2026Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3     —34.3     —
7/2/2026Unemployment Rate4.30%     —4.30%     —
7/2/2026Labor Force Participation Rate61.80%     —61.80%     —
7/2/2026Underemployment Rate     —     —8.10%     —
7/2/2026Initial Jobless Claims218k     —215k     —
7/2/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —224.25k     —
7/2/2026Continuing Claims1820k     —1821k     —
7/2/2026Factory Orders-2.00%     —4.80%     —
7/2/2026Factory Orders Ex Trans     —     —1.30%     —
7/2/2026Durable Goods Orders-4.50%     —-4.50%     —
7/2/2026Durables Ex Transportation1.30%     —1.30%     —
7/2/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air1.60%     —1.60%     —
7/2/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.30%     —
7/6/2026S&P Global US Services PMI     —     —51.3     —
7/6/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —52.2     —
7/6/2026ISM Services Index54.2     —54.5     —
7/6/2026ISM Services Prices Paid70.2     —71.3     —
7/6/2026ISM Services New Orders57.5     —57.3     —
7/6/2026ISM Services Employment48.2     —47.9     —
7/7/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —30.750k     —
7/7/2026Trade Balance-$78.7b     —-$55.9b     —
7/7/2026Imports MoM     —     —2.00%     —
7/7/2026Exports MoM     —     —2.60%     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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