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Author Jason Haley

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Treasuries benefited from a decline in oil prices overnight, albeit on lighter trading volumes.

Yields are currently 3-5 basis points lower in a modest bull steepening move. Nasdaq futures are down more than 1% ahead of the open on worries of an overextended AI-led rally following disappointing guidance from a couple of chipmakers. Oil markets continue to trade with optimism after yesterday’s announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, but news reports suggest fighting continues in Lebanon and Iran denies any progress in US peace talks. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time rose more than expected last week to 225,000, the highest reading since early February. Continuing unemployment claims, which lag by a week, fell slightly more than expected to 1.78 million.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
6/4/2026Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —3.40%-20.90%     —
6/4/2026Challenger Job Cuts Total     —9700683387     —
6/4/2026Nonfarm Productivity0.40%0.30%0.80%     —
6/4/2026Unit Labor Costs2.40%1.80%2.30%     —
6/4/2026Initial Jobless Claims215k225k215k212k
6/4/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —214.75k209.00k208.25k
6/4/2026Continuing Claims1780k1777k1786k1785k
6/5/2026Change in Nonfarm Payrolls85k     —115k     —
6/5/2026Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —-16k     —
6/5/2026Change in Private Payrolls86k     —123k     —
6/5/2026Change in Manufact. Payrolls2k     —-2k     —
6/5/2026Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —48k     —
6/5/2026Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
6/5/2026Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.40%     —3.60%     —
6/5/2026Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3     —34.3     —
6/5/2026Unemployment Rate4.30%     —4.30%     —
6/5/2026Labor Force Participation Rate61.80%     —61.80%     —
6/5/2026Underemployment Rate     —     —8.20%     —
6/5/2026Consumer Credit$17.750b     —$24.855b     —
6/8/2026NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.64%     —
6/9/2026NFIB Small Business Optimism     —     —95.9     —
6/9/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —35.750k     —
6/9/2026Trade Balance-$55.0b     —-$60.3b     —
6/9/2026Imports MoM     —     —2.30%     —
6/9/2026Exports MoM     —     —2.00%     —
6/9/2026Existing Home Sales4.08m     —4.02m     —
6/9/2026Existing Home Sales MoM0.70%     —0.20%     —
6/9/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM     —     —0.50%     —
6/9/2026Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —2.80%     —
6/10/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-2.50%     —
6/10/2026CPI MoM0.50%     —0.60%     —
6/10/2026Core CPI MoM0.30%     —0.40%     —
6/10/2026CPI YoY4.20%     —3.80%     —
6/10/2026Core CPI YoY2.90%     —2.80%     —
6/10/2026CPI Index NSA     —     —333.02     —
6/10/2026Core CPI Index SA     —     —335.423     —
6/10/2026Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —-0.30%     —
6/10/2026Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —-0.20%     —
6/10/2026Federal Budget Balance     —     —$215.0b     —
6/11/2026Initial Jobless Claims     —     —225k     —
6/11/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —214.75k     —
6/11/2026Continuing Claims     —     —1777k     —
6/11/2026PPI Final Demand MoM0.60%     —1.40%     —
6/11/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.50%     —1.00%     —
6/11/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM     —     —0.60%     —
6/11/2026PPI Final Demand YoY     —     —6.00%     —
6/11/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY     —     —5.20%     —
6/11/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —4.40%     —
6/11/2026Household Change in Net Worth     —     —$2173b     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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