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Author Kirby Hart

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields have sold-off to start the morning following a strong May employment report.

Non-farm payrolls increase 172k, well above the economist median expectation of 88k. The unemployment rate is unchanged month to month and sits at 4.3%. This data release has Treasury yields up 8-10 bps on the front of the curve. The market is now fully pricing in a 25 bps rate hike by year-end as this data provides confidence in the labor market and the Federal Reserve will turn their focus towards inflation based on their mandate of stable prices and maximum employment.

Kirby Hart
Director

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
6/5/2026Change in Nonfarm Payrolls88k172k115k179k
6/5/2026Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —93k-16k     —
6/5/2026Change in Private Payrolls89k120k123k177k
6/5/2026Change in Manufact. Payrolls2k7k-2k0k
6/5/2026Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —188k48k79k
6/5/2026Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.30%0.20%     —
6/5/2026Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.40%3.40%3.60%     —
6/5/2026Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.334.334.3     —
6/5/2026Unemployment Rate4.30%4.30%4.30%     —
6/5/2026Labor Force Participation Rate61.80%61.80%61.80%     —
6/5/2026Underemployment Rate     —8.10%8.20%     —
6/5/2026Consumer Credit$17.670b     —$24.855b     —
6/8/2026NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.64%     —
6/9/2026NFIB Small Business Optimism96     —95.9     —
6/9/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —35.750k     —
6/9/2026Trade Balance-$55.5b     —-$60.3b     —
6/9/2026Imports MoM     —     —2.30%     —
6/9/2026Exports MoM     —     —2.00%     —
6/9/2026Existing Home Sales4.08m     —4.02m     —
6/9/2026Existing Home Sales MoM0.90%     —0.20%     —
6/9/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM     —     —0.50%     —
6/9/2026Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —2.80%     —
6/10/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-2.50%     —
6/10/2026CPI MoM0.50%     —0.60%     —
6/10/2026Core CPI MoM0.30%     —0.40%     —
6/10/2026CPI YoY4.20%     —3.80%     —
6/10/2026Core CPI YoY2.90%     —2.80%     —
6/10/2026CPI Index NSA     —     —333.02     —
6/10/2026Core CPI Index SA336.265     —335.423     —
6/10/2026Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —-0.30%     —
6/10/2026Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —-0.20%     —
6/10/2026Federal Budget Balance     —     —$215.0b     —
6/11/2026Initial Jobless Claims     —     —225k     —
6/11/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —214.75k     —
6/11/2026Continuing Claims     —     —1777k     —
6/11/2026PPI Final Demand MoM0.70%     —1.40%     —
6/11/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.50%     —1.00%     —
6/11/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM     —     —0.60%     —
6/11/2026PPI Final Demand YoY     —     —6.00%     —
6/11/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY     —     —5.20%     —
6/11/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —4.40%     —
6/11/2026Household Change in Net Worth     —     —$2173b     —
6/12/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment46     —44.8     —
6/12/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions     —     —45.8     —
6/12/2026U. of Mich. Expectations     —     —44.1     —
6/12/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation     —     —4.80%     —
6/12/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation     —     —3.90%     —

Kirby Hart

Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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