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Author Jason Haley

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Estimated

Nonfarm payrolls rose 139,000 in May, 13,000 more than expected, and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2% (up 0.057% to 4.244% on an unrounded basis).

Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% m/m (0.3% expected) and 3.9% y/y (3.7% expected). A negative within the report was the 2-month revision to payrolls growth of -95,000. The healthcare sector, which should be less impacted by tariffs, added another 62,000 jobs in May, slightly above the 60,000 average for the first four months of the year. Leisure and hospitality added 44,000 jobs last month. Treasury yields are 6-8 basis points higher in the immediate reaction to the release, and fed funds futures are pricing a reduced probability of a September Fed rate cut (0.17% vs. 0.24% yesterday). S&P 500 futures are up 0.8% 30 minutes ahead of the open.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
6/6/2025Change in Nonfarm Payrolls126k139k177k147k
6/6/2025Change in Private Payrolls120k140k167k146k
6/6/2025Change in Manufact. Payrolls-5k-8k-1k5k
6/6/2025Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —135k155k123k
6/6/2025Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —-95k-58k     —
6/6/2025Unemployment Rate4.20%4.20%4.20%     —
6/6/2025Labor Force Participation Rate62.60%62.40%62.60%     —
6/6/2025Underemployment Rate     —7.80%7.80%     —
6/6/2025Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.40%0.20%     —
6/6/2025Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.70%3.90%3.80%3.90%
6/6/2025Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.334.334.3     —
6/6/2025Consumer Credit$10.000b     —$10.172b     —
6/9/2025Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.30%     —0.60%     —
6/9/2025Wholesale Inventories MoM     —     —0.00%     —
6/9/2025NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.63%     —
6/10/2025NFIB Small Business Optimism95.9     —95.8     —
6/11/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-3.90%     —
6/11/2025CPI MoM0.20%     —0.20%     —
6/11/2025CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
6/11/2025CPI YoY2.50%     —2.30%     —
6/11/2025CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.90%     —2.80%     —
6/11/2025CPI Index NSA     —     —320.795     —
6/11/2025CPI Core Index SA     —     —326.43     —
6/11/2025Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —1.40%1.50%
6/11/2025Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —1.70%1.80%
6/11/2025Federal Budget Balance     —     —$258.4b     —
6/12/2025PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%     —-0.50%     —
6/12/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%     —-0.40%     —
6/12/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM     —     —-0.10%     —
6/12/2025PPI Final Demand YoY     —     —2.40%     —
6/12/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY     —     —3.10%     —
6/12/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —2.90%     —
6/12/2025Initial Jobless Claims     —     —247k     —
6/12/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —235.00k     —
6/12/2025Continuing Claims     —     —1904k     —
6/12/2025Household Change in Net Worth     —     —$164b     —
6/13/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment52     —52.2     —
6/13/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions     —     —58.9     —
6/13/2025U. of Mich. Expectations     —     —47.9     —
6/13/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation     —     —6.60%     —
6/13/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation     —     —4.20%     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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