Site Search

Looking for something? Use the search bar below or visit our Resources page.


Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are modestly lower following a very quiet overnight session and Friday’s post-jobs selloff that sent front-end yields 12-13 basis points higher.

This week’s economic calendar is headlined by the May CPI report (Wednesday), and it will be worth paying attention to the weekly jobless claims data on Thursday. Jobless claims topped 240,000 for two consecutive weeks, and a continuation of this trend could suggest some deterioration in labor market conditions emerging. The Fed is in its communications blackout period ahead of the June 18 FOMC meeting.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
6/9/2025Wholesale Inventories MoM0.00%     —0.00%
6/9/2025Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.20%     —0.60%
6/9/2025NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.63%
6/10/2025NFIB Small Business Optimism95.8     —95.8
6/11/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-3.90%
6/11/2025Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —1.40%
6/11/2025Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —1.70%
6/11/2025CPI MoM0.20%     —0.20%
6/11/2025CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%     —0.20%
6/11/2025CPI YoY2.50%     —2.30%
6/11/2025CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.90%     —2.80%
6/11/2025CPI Index NSA321.751     —320.795
6/11/2025CPI Core Index SA327.319     —326.43
6/11/2025Federal Budget Balance-$314.1b     —$258.4b
6/12/2025PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%     —-0.50%
6/12/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%     —-0.40%
6/12/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%     —-0.10%
6/12/2025PPI Final Demand YoY2.60%     —2.40%
6/12/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.10%     —3.10%
6/12/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —2.90%
6/12/2025Initial Jobless Claims241k     —247k
6/12/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —235.00k
6/12/2025Continuing Claims1910k     —1904k
6/12/2025Household Change in Net Worth     —     —$164b
6/13/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment53.5     —52.2
6/13/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions58.8     —58.9
6/13/2025U. of Mich. Expectations48.3     —47.9
6/13/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation6.50%     —6.60%
6/13/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation4.20%     —4.20%
6/16/2025Empire Manufacturing-5     —-9.2

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

  Headline Disclaimer

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.

Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.

Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.



Recent Beyond The Headlines


  Headlines RSS
Strategic Partners

Let’s Work Together

ALM First is your agile partner with a trusted history of delivering results.