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Author Kirby Hart

Published

Estimated

The risk-on tone continues this morning in markets as attacks in the Middle East have stopped and the AI trade recovers from Friday’s sell-off.

The overall sentiment about the war in the Middle East has improved since the weekend, bringing Brent oil down 1.5% today. Treasury yields are 2-3 bps lower across the curve. Equity futures point to a second consecutive positive opening today following Friday’s sell-off. S&P 500 futures indicate a 0.50% gain at the open. Today’s economic data included a slight upside surprise in the trade balance, as the US trade gap narrowed in April. Today at 10 am ET, we will receive data on existing home sales in May. The market will now turn its focus to tomorrow morning’s CPI print to see how oil prices have weighed on inflation in May.

Kirby Hart
Director

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
6/9/2026NFIB Small Business Optimism9695.395.9     —
6/9/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —30.500k35.750k     —
6/9/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —29.000k30.500k     —
6/9/2026Trade Balance-$56.1b-$55.9b-$60.3b-$56.6b
6/9/2026Imports MoM1.60%2.00%2.30%     —
6/9/2026Exports MoM2.40%2.60%2.00%2.20%
6/9/2026Existing Home Sales4.07m     —4.02m     —
6/9/2026Existing Home Sales MoM1.10%     —0.20%     —
6/9/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM0.60%     —0.50%     —
6/9/2026Wholesale Trade Sales MoM1.20%     —2.80%     —
6/10/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-2.50%     —
6/10/2026CPI MoM0.50%     —0.60%     —
6/10/2026Core CPI MoM0.30%     —0.40%     —
6/10/2026CPI YoY4.20%     —3.80%     —
6/10/2026Core CPI YoY2.90%     —2.80%     —
6/10/2026CPI Index NSA335.143     —333.02     —
6/10/2026Core CPI Index SA336.335     —335.42     —
6/10/2026Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —-0.30%     —
6/10/2026Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —-0.20%     —
6/10/2026Federal Budget Balance-$282.0b     —$215.0b     —
6/11/2026Initial Jobless Claims220k     —225k     —
6/11/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —214.75k     —
6/11/2026Continuing Claims1785k     —1777k     —
6/11/2026PPI Final Demand MoM0.70%     —1.40%     —
6/11/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.50%     —1.00%     —
6/11/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.40%     —0.60%     —
6/11/2026PPI Final Demand YoY6.40%     —6.00%     —
6/11/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY5.40%     —5.20%     —
6/11/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY4.90%     —4.40%     —
6/11/2026Household Change in Net Worth     —     —$2173b     —
6/12/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment46     —44.8     —
6/12/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions46     —45.8     —
6/12/2026U. of Mich. Expectations44.7     —44.1     —
6/12/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.90%     —4.80%     —
6/12/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.90%     —3.90%     —
6/15/2026Empire Manufacturing     —     —19.6     —
6/15/2026Industrial Production MoM0.20%     —0.70%     —
6/15/2026Manufacturing Production MoM     —     —0.60%     —
6/15/2026Capacity Utilization76.20%     —76.10%     —
6/15/2026NAHB Housing Market Index37     —37     —
6/16/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —29.000k     —
6/16/2026Import Price Index MoM     —     —1.90%     —
6/16/2026Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM     —     —0.70%     —
6/16/2026Import Price Index YoY     —     —4.20%     —
6/16/2026Export Price Index MoM     —     —3.30%     —
6/16/2026New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —-5.8     —
6/16/2026Export Price Index YoY     —     —8.80%     —
6/16/2026Housing Starts1415k     —1465k     —
6/16/2026Housing Starts MoM-1.70%     —-2.80%     —
6/16/2026Building Permits     —     —1423k     —
6/16/2026Building Permits MoM     —     —4.40%     —

Kirby Hart

Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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