Concerns over the growth prospects of the US economy continue to weigh on the market, sparking a flight-to-quality trade that has sent Treasury yields 6 to 8 bps lower across the curve.
The Trump administration’s plans to enact tariffs and slash the government payroll have investors fearing the possibility of a recession. This uncertainty has sent volatility higher with the MOVE index, which tracks the implied volatility of a basket of at-the-money options on interest rate swaps, which has hit its highest level since before the election.
Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior |
| 03/10/25 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | 3.10% | — | 3.00% |
| 03/11/25 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 101 | — | 102.8 |
| 03/11/25 | JOLTS Job Openings | 7630k | — | 7600k |
| 03/11/25 | JOLTS Job Openings Rate | — | — | 4.50% |
| 03/11/25 | JOLTS Quits Level | — | — | 3197k |
| 03/11/25 | JOLTS Quits Rate | — | — | 2.00% |
| 03/11/25 | JOLTS Layoffs Level | — | — | 1771k |
| 03/11/25 | JOLTS Layoffs Rate | — | — | 1.10% |
| 03/12/25 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 20.40% |
| 03/12/25 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 1.00% |
| 03/12/25 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.70% |
| 03/12/25 | CPI MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.50% |
| 03/12/25 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% |
| 03/12/25 | CPI YoY | 2.90% | — | 3.00% |
| 03/12/25 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 3.20% | — | 3.30% |
| 03/12/25 | CPI Index NSA | 319.226 | — | 317.671 |
| 03/12/25 | CPI Core Index SA | 325.683 | — | 324.739 |
| 03/12/25 | Federal Budget Balance | -$314.3b | — | -$128.6b |
| 03/13/25 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% |
| 03/13/25 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% |
| 03/13/25 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% |
| 03/13/25 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 3.20% | — | 3.50% |
| 03/13/25 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 3.60% | — | 3.60% |
| 03/13/25 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 3.40% |
| 03/13/25 | Initial Jobless Claims | 225k | — | 221k |
| 03/13/25 | Continuing Claims | 1890k | — | 1897k |
| 03/13/25 | Household Change in Net Worth | — | — | $4766b |
| 03/14/25 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 63.4 | — | 64.7 |
| 03/14/25 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 64.5 | — | 65.7 |
| 03/14/25 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 63.5 | — | 64 |
| 03/14/25 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 4.20% | — | 4.30% |
| 03/14/25 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.40% | — | 3.50% |
