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Author Jason Haley

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Estimated

Treasury yields are little changed to start the week following a quiet overnight session.

There are no major data releases today, but the major economic event for this week is tomorrow’s CPI report for February. Additionally, wholesale inflation data (PPI) will be released on Thursday. We’ve reached the blackout period ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, so there will be no public appearances from Fed leaders this week. Fed funds futures are currently pricing a small probability of a May rate cut and a high probability of the first cut coming in June. Such an action would require clear softening in labor market and inflation data, as Fed leaders have reiterated in recent weeks/months.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
3/11/2024NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations——3.00%—
3/12/2024NFIB Small Business Optimism90.5—89.9—
3/12/2024CPI MoM0.40%—0.30%—
3/12/2024CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%—0.40%—
3/12/2024CPI YoY3.10%—3.10%—
3/12/2024CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.70%—3.90%—
3/12/2024CPI Index NSA310.304—308.417—
3/12/2024CPI Core Index SA315.453—314.438—
3/12/2024Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY——1.40%1.30%
3/12/2024Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY——-0.10%0.10%
3/12/2024Monthly Budget Statement-$299.0b—-$21.9b—
3/13/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——9.70%—
3/14/2024Retail Sales Advance MoM0.80%—-0.80%—
3/14/2024Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.50%—-0.60%—
3/14/2024Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%—-0.50%—
3/14/2024Retail Sales Control Group0.40%—-0.40%—
3/14/2024PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%—0.30%—
3/14/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%—0.50%—
3/14/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%—0.60%—
3/14/2024PPI Final Demand YoY1.20%—0.90%—
3/14/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.90%—2.00%—
3/14/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY——2.60%—
3/14/2024Initial Jobless Claims218k—217k—
3/14/2024Continuing Claims1905k—1906k—
3/14/2024Business Inventories0.20%—0.40%—
3/15/2024Empire Manufacturing-7—-2.4—
3/15/2024Import Price Index MoM0.30%—0.80%—
3/15/2024Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.00%—0.60%—
3/15/2024Import Price Index YoY-0.70%—-1.30%—
3/15/2024Export Price Index MoM0.30%—0.80%—
3/15/2024Export Price Index YoY——-2.40%—
3/15/2024Industrial Production MoM0.00%—-0.10%—
3/15/2024Capacity Utilization78.50%—78.50%—
3/15/2024Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.40%—-0.50%—
3/15/2024U. of Mich. Sentiment77.3—76.9—
3/15/2024U. of Mich. Current Conditions——79.4—
3/15/2024U. of Mich. Expectations——75.2—
3/15/2024U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.10%—3.00%—
3/15/2024U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.00%—2.90%—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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