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Author Jason Haley

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The February CPI report showed core inflation rising more than expected (0.4% vs. 0.3%), although the figure was 0.358% on an unrounded basis.

The so-called “supercore” metric, which subtracts housing from core services, rose 0.47% m/m in February following the prior month’s 0.85% surge. This metric has been referenced by Fed leaders numerous times over the last year or more. The headline CPI rate was in line with expectations, rising 0.4% m/m. On a year-over-year basis, core CPI rose 3.8% versus expectations of a 3.7% increase, and headline CPI unexpectedly ticked up to 3.2%. The immediate reaction in Treasuries has been mixed, with prices fluctuating between positive and negative territory on the day.

One might expect a sharp selloff given the above-expectations core reading, but some market participants are focusing more on the unrounded figure (0.358%) and the fact that supercore fell from a very elevated rate in January. The day is still early, but this is a market still biased toward a more dovish Fed. However, several Fed leaders who have expressed more caution in recent weeks regarding stickier inflation are likely less relieved with today’s report. We should learn more at next week’s FOMC meeting, particularly the release of the updated Summary of Economic Projections.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
3/12/2024NFIB Small Business Optimism90.589.489.9—
3/12/2024CPI MoM0.40%0.40%0.30%—
3/12/2024CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%0.40%0.40%—
3/12/2024CPI YoY3.10%3.20%3.10%—
3/12/2024CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.70%3.80%3.90%—
3/12/2024CPI Index NSA310.304310.326308.417—
3/12/2024CPI Core Index SA315.426315.565314.438—
3/12/2024Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY—1.10%1.40%1.30%
3/12/2024Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY—0.50%-0.10%0.10%
3/12/2024Monthly Budget Statement-$298.5b—-$262.4b—
3/13/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——9.70%—
3/14/2024Retail Sales Advance MoM0.80%—-0.80%—
3/14/2024Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.50%—-0.60%—
3/14/2024Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%—-0.50%—
3/14/2024Retail Sales Control Group0.40%—-0.40%—
3/14/2024PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%—0.30%—
3/14/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%—0.50%—
3/14/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%—0.60%—
3/14/2024PPI Final Demand YoY1.20%—0.90%—
3/14/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.90%—2.00%—
3/14/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY——2.60%—
3/14/2024Initial Jobless Claims218k—217k—
3/14/2024Continuing Claims1906k—1906k—
3/14/2024Business Inventories0.20%—0.40%—
3/15/2024Empire Manufacturing-7—-2.4—
3/15/2024Import Price Index MoM0.30%—0.80%—
3/15/2024Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.20%—0.60%—
3/15/2024Import Price Index YoY-0.80%—-1.30%—
3/15/2024Export Price Index MoM0.40%—0.80%—
3/15/2024Export Price Index YoY-2.40%—-2.40%—
3/15/2024Industrial Production MoM0.10%—-0.10%—
3/15/2024Capacity Utilization78.50%—78.50%—
3/15/2024Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.30%—-0.50%—
3/15/2024U. of Mich. Sentiment77.1—76.9—
3/15/2024U. of Mich. Current Conditions79.7—79.4—
3/15/2024U. of Mich. Expectations75.1—75.2—
3/15/2024U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.10%—3.00%—
3/15/2024U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.90%—2.90%—
3/18/2024New York Fed Services Business Activity——-7.3—
3/18/2024NAHB Housing Market Index48—48—
3/19/2024Building Permits MoM0.70%—-1.50%-0.30%
3/19/2024Building Permits1500k—1470k1489k
3/19/2024Housing Starts1425k—1331k—
3/19/2024Housing Starts MoM7.10%—-14.80%—
3/19/2024Total Net TIC Flows——$139.8b—
3/19/2024Net Long-term TIC Flows——$160.2b—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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