February PPI exceeded all expectations while retail sales came in lower than forecast. Prices paid to US producers increased by 0.6% m/m vs the median forecast of 0.3%, on y/y basis it was up 1.6%. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.3% vs 0.2% expected, up 2% from a year ago. Today’s PPI reading plus the CPI reading from earlier this week should give the Fed the support to keep rates unchanged at next week’s FOMC meeting.
Hafizan Hamzah Senior Director, Investment Management Group
Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised 03/14/24 Retail Sales Advance MoM 0.80% 0.60% -0.80% -1.10% 03/14/24 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.50% 0.30% -0.60% -0.80% 03/14/24 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.30% 0.30% -0.50% -0.80% 03/14/24 Retail Sales Control Group 0.40% 0.00% -0.40% -0.30% 03/14/24 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.30% 0.60% 0.30% — 03/14/24 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.30% 0.50% — 03/14/24 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.30% 0.40% 0.60% — 03/14/24 PPI Final Demand YoY 1.20% 1.60% 0.90% 1.00% 03/14/24 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 1.90% 2.00% 2.00% — 03/14/24 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY — 2.80% 2.60% 2.70% 03/14/24 Initial Jobless Claims 218k 209k 217k 210k 03/14/24 Continuing Claims 1905k 1811k 1906k 1794k 03/14/24 Business Inventories 0.20% — 0.40% — 03/15/24 Empire Manufacturing -7 — -2.4 — 03/15/24 Import Price Index MoM 0.30% — 0.80% — 03/15/24 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM -0.20% — 0.60% — 03/15/24 Import Price Index YoY -0.80% — -1.30% — 03/15/24 Export Price Index MoM 0.40% — 0.80% — 03/15/24 Export Price Index YoY -2.40% — -2.40% — 03/15/24 Industrial Production MoM 0.00% — -0.10% — 03/15/24 Capacity Utilization 78.50% — 78.50% — 03/15/24 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 0.30% — -0.50% — 03/15/24 U. of Mich. Sentiment 77.2 — 76.9 — 03/15/24 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 79.7 — 79.4 — 03/15/24 U. of Mich. Expectations 75.1 — 75.2 — 03/15/24 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 3.10% — 3.00% — 03/15/24 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.90% — 2.90% —
Hafizan Hamzah Senior Director, Investment Management Group
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