Financial markets are digesting fresh economic data and more comments from the Trump administration to start the week.
Regarding the latter, Treasury Secretary Bessent refused to rule out a recession and said the administration’s focus is on “robust policies that will be durable.” Separately, President Trump reiterated plans to initiate reciprocal and sector-specific tariffs on April 2.
On the data front, retail sales rebounded in February after a rough January, which was revised even lower. While headline sales rose less than expected (0.2% vs. 0.6%), the retail sales control group, which is used in the GDP calculation, rose 1% m/m versus expectations of a 0.4% gain. The Empire Manufacturing Index, which tracks activity in New York State, fell to the lowest level in a year, including lower new orders and higher prices. Additionally, expectations for business conditions six months forward fell to the lowest level since November 2023. U.S. equity futures and Treasury yields were initially lower to start the morning but have mostly reversed in the initial reaction to the retail sales data.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 3/17/2025 | Empire Manufacturing | -1.9 | -20 | 5.7 | — |
| 3/17/2025 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.60% | 0.20% | -0.90% | -1.20% |
| 3/17/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.30% | 0.30% | -0.40% | -0.60% |
| 3/17/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.40% | 0.50% | -0.50% | -0.80% |
| 3/17/2025 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.40% | 1.00% | -0.80% | -1.00% |
| 3/17/2025 | Business Inventories | 0.30% | — | -0.20% | — |
| 3/17/2025 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 42 | — | 42 | — |
| 3/18/2025 | Housing Starts | 1381k | — | 1366k | — |
| 3/18/2025 | Housing Starts MoM | 1.10% | — | -9.80% | — |
| 3/18/2025 | Building Permits | 1450k | — | 1473k | — |
| 3/18/2025 | Building Permits MoM | -1.60% | — | -0.60% | — |
| 3/18/2025 | Import Price Index MoM | -0.10% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 3/18/2025 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 3/18/2025 | Import Price Index YoY | 1.60% | — | 1.90% | — |
| 3/18/2025 | Export Price Index MoM | -0.20% | — | 1.30% | — |
| 3/18/2025 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 2.70% | — |
| 3/18/2025 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | — | -10.5 | — |
| 3/18/2025 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 3/18/2025 | Capacity Utilization | 77.80% | — | 77.80% | — |
| 3/18/2025 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.30% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 3/19/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 11.20% | — |
| 3/19/2025 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 4.50% | — | 4.50% | — |
| 3/19/2025 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 4.25% | — | 4.25% | — |
| 3/19/2025 | Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate | 4.40% | — | 4.40% | — |
| 3/19/2025 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr | 4.38% | — | 4.38% | — |
| 3/19/2025 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr | 3.88% | — | 3.88% | — |
| 3/19/2025 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs | 3.38% | — | 3.38% | — |
| 3/19/2025 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run | 3.06% | — | 3.00% | — |
| 3/19/2025 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $72.0b | — |
| 3/19/2025 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $87.1b | — |
| 3/20/2025 | Current Account Balance | -$330.0b | — | -$310.9b | — |
| 3/20/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 224k | — | 220k | — |
| 3/20/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1888k | — | 1870k | — |
| 3/20/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 10 | — | 18.1 | — |
| 3/20/2025 | Leading Index | -0.20% | — | -0.30% | — |
| 3/20/2025 | Existing Home Sales | 3.94m | — | 4.08m | — |
| 3/20/2025 | Existing Home Sales MoM | -3.40% | — | -4.90% | — |
| 3/24/2025 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | — | — | -0.03 | — |
| 3/24/2025 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | — | — | 52.7 | — |
| 3/24/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | — | — | 51 | — |
| 3/24/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 51.6 | — |
