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Author Jason Haley

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Oil prices are climbing higher again this morning after Iran continued to target energy infrastructure targets in the region overnight.

Treasuries and equity index futures are less reactive so far and little changed versus yesterday’s close following reports that Iran’s security chief was killed by an Israeli airstrike. The economic calendar is light leading up to tomorrow’s FOMC decision. Markets will pay close attention to the Fed’s updated forecasts, including the Fed funds rate. Fed funds futures have priced out one of the two forecasted rate cuts for 2026 following the surge in oil prices. That puts the market in line with the last median forecast from the Fed at the December meeting.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date EventSurveyActualPriorRevised
3/17/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —9.000k15.500k14.750k
3/17/2026New York Fed Services Business Activity-20-22.6-25.7     —
3/17/2026Pending Home Sales MoM-0.60%     —-0.80%     —
3/17/2026Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-4.50%     —-1.20%     —
3/18/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —3.20%     —
3/18/2026PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%     —0.50%     —
3/18/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%     —0.80%     —
3/18/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%     —0.30%     —
3/18/2026PPI Final Demand YoY3.00%     —2.90%     —
3/18/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.70%     —3.60%     —
3/18/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY3.40%     —3.40%     —
3/18/2026Factory Orders0.10%     —-0.70%     —
3/18/2026Factory Orders Ex Trans0.40%     —0.40%     —
3/18/2026Durable Goods Orders0.00%     —0.00%     —
3/18/2026Durables Ex Transportation0.40%     —0.40%     —
3/18/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.00%     —0.00%     —
3/18/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —-0.10%     —
3/18/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)3.75%     —3.75%     —
3/18/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)3.50%     —3.50%     —
3/18/2026Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate3.65%     —3.65%     —
3/18/2026Fed Reverse Repo Rate     —     —3.50%     —
3/18/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr3.38%     —3.63%     —
3/18/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr3.13%     —3.38%     —
3/18/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs3.13%     —3.13%     —
3/18/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run3.13%     —3.00%     —
3/18/2026Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$44.9b     —
3/18/2026Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$28.0b     —
3/19/2026Initial Jobless Claims215k     —213k     —
3/19/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —212.00k     —
3/19/2026Continuing Claims1851k     —1850k     —
3/19/2026Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook8.5     —16.3     —
3/19/2026Leading Index-0.10%     —-0.20%     —
3/19/2026New Home Sales722k     —745k     —
3/19/2026New Home Sales MoM-2.70%     —-1.70%     —
3/19/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%     —0.20%     —
3/19/2026Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.60%     —1.00%     —
3/19/2026Household Change in Net Worth     —     —$6064b     —
3/19/2026Building Permits     —     —1376k     —
3/19/2026Building Permits MoM     —     —-5.40%     —
3/20/2026Bloomberg March United States Economic Survey    
3/23/2026Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index     —     —0.18     —
3/23/2026Construction Spending MoM0.10%     —0.30%     —
3/24/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —9.000k     —
3/24/2026Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity     —     —-17.3     —
3/24/2026Nonfarm Productivity2.40%     —2.80%     —
3/24/2026Unit Labor Costs3.40%     —2.80%     —
3/24/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —51.6     —
3/24/2026S&P Global US Services PMI     —     —51.7     —
3/24/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —51.9     —
3/24/2026Richmond Fed Manufact. Index     —     —-10     —
3/24/2026Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —-10     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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