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Author Jason Haley

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Estimated

Financial markets are very calm this morning relative to the price action of the last 2+ weeks.

Oil prices are little changed despite ongoing strikes in Iran and neighboring countries, Treasury yields are 2-3 basis points higher on the front-end of the curve after the February PPI report (wholesale inflation) came in hotter than expected. This would be another sign of stubborn inflation pressures leading up to this afternoon’s FOMC decision. The minutes of the January meeting implied that the Fed was firmly on the sidelines until there were clear signs of changes in labor market and inflation dynamics. In fact, there were several members who were open to guidance that included the possibility of rate hikes should inflation remain well above target. All of this was before the January PCE report that showed core inflation at 3.1% year-over-year and the recent surge in energy costs.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
3/18/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —-10.90%3.20%     —
3/18/2026PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%0.70%0.50%     —
3/18/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%0.50%0.80%     —
3/18/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%0.50%0.30%0.40%
3/18/2026PPI Final Demand YoY3.00%3.40%2.90%     —
3/18/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.70%3.90%3.60%3.50%
3/18/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY3.40%3.50%3.40%     —
3/18/2026Factory Orders0.10%     —-0.70%     —
3/18/2026Factory Orders Ex Trans0.30%     —0.40%     —
3/18/2026Durable Goods Orders0.00%     —0.00%     —
3/18/2026Durables Ex Transportation0.40%     —0.40%     —
3/18/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.00%     —0.00%     —
3/18/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-0.10%     —-0.10%     —
3/18/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)3.75%     —3.75%     —
3/18/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)3.50%     —3.50%     —
3/18/2026Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate3.65%     —3.65%     —
3/18/2026Fed Reverse Repo Rate     —     —3.50%     —
3/18/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr3.38%     —3.38%     —
3/18/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr3.13%     —3.13%     —
3/18/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs3.13%     —3.13%     —
3/18/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run3.13%     —3.00%     —
3/18/2026Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$44.9b     —
3/18/2026Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$28.0b     —
3/19/2026Initial Jobless Claims215k     —213k     —
3/19/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —212.00k     —
3/19/2026Continuing Claims1851k     —1850k     —
3/19/2026Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook8.5     —16.3     —
3/19/2026Leading Index-0.10%     —-0.20%     —
3/19/2026New Home Sales722k     —745k     —
3/19/2026New Home Sales MoM-2.70%     —-1.70%     —
3/19/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%     —0.20%     —
3/19/2026Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.60%     —1.00%     —
3/19/2026Household Change in Net Worth     —     —$6064b     —
3/19/2026Building Permits     —     —1376k     —
3/19/2026Building Permits MoM     —     —-5.40%     —
3/20/2026Bloomberg March United States Economic Survey    
3/23/2026Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index     —     —0.18     —
3/23/2026Construction Spending MoM0.10%     —0.30%     —
3/24/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —9.000k     —
3/24/2026Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity     —     —-17.3     —
3/24/2026Nonfarm Productivity2.40%     —2.80%     —
3/24/2026Unit Labor Costs3.40%     —2.80%     —
3/24/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —51.6     —
3/24/2026S&P Global US Services PMI     —     —51.7     —
3/24/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —51.9     —
3/24/2026Richmond Fed Manufact. Index     —     —-10     —
3/24/2026Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —-10     —
3/25/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-10.90%     —
3/25/2026Import Price Index MoM     —     —0.20%     —
3/25/2026Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM     —     —0.40%     —
3/25/2026Import Price Index YoY     —     —-0.10%     —
3/25/2026Export Price Index MoM     —     —0.60%     —
3/25/2026Export Price Index YoY     —     —2.60%     —
3/25/2026Current Account Balance     —     —-$226.4b     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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