Financial markets are relatively quiet ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC decision.
With zero expectations of a rate change, today’s focus will be on tone and forward guidance, including the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). The December SEP revealed a median FOMC forecast of 2 rate cuts (50 bps total) in 2025, and as of this morning, fed funds futures are priced for slightly more (58 bps). We will also see if Powell updates the conditions for a resumption of rate cuts from the last press conference in January, including their assessment of uncertainty factors impacting inflation and their policy decisions. Uncertainty related to trade has only ratcheted higher since the January 29 meeting, for which reporters will surely press Powell for an updated assessment.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 3/19/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -6.20% | 11.20% | — |
| 3/19/2025 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 4.50% | — | 4.50% | — |
| 3/19/2025 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 4.25% | — | 4.25% | — |
| 3/19/2025 | Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate | 4.40% | — | 4.40% | — |
| 3/19/2025 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr | 3.88% | — | 4.38% | — |
| 3/19/2025 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr | 3.38% | — | 3.88% | — |
| 3/19/2025 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs | 3.13% | — | 3.38% | — |
| 3/19/2025 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run | 3.13% | — | 3.00% | — |
| 3/19/2025 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $72.0b | — |
| 3/19/2025 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $87.1b | — |
| 3/20/2025 | Current Account Balance | -$330.0b | — | -$310.9b | — |
| 3/20/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 224k | — | 220k | — |
| 3/20/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1887k | — | 1870k | — |
| 3/20/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 9 | — | 18.1 | — |
| 3/20/2025 | Leading Index | -0.20% | — | -0.30% | — |
| 3/20/2025 | Existing Home Sales | 3.95m | — | 4.08m | — |
| 3/20/2025 | Existing Home Sales MoM | -3.20% | — | -4.90% | — |
| 3/24/2025 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | -0.14 | — | -0.03 | — |
| 3/24/2025 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | — | — | 52.7 | — |
| 3/24/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | — | — | 51 | — |
| 3/24/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 51.6 | — |
| 3/25/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity | — | — | -13.1 | — |
| 3/25/2025 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | — | — | 0.40% | — |
| 3/25/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | — | — | 0.52% | — |
| 3/25/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | — | — | 4.48% | — |
| 3/25/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 3.92% | — |
| 3/25/2025 | New Home Sales | 680k | — | 657k | — |
| 3/25/2025 | New Home Sales MoM | 3.50% | — | -10.50% | — |
| 3/25/2025 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 94 | — | 98.3 | — |
| 3/25/2025 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 136.5 | — |
| 3/25/2025 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 72.9 | — |
| 3/25/2025 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | — | — | 6 | — |
| 3/25/2025 | Richmond Fed Business Conditions | — | — | 1 | — |
| 3/25/2025 | Building Permits | — | — | 1456k | — |
| 3/25/2025 | Building Permits MoM | — | — | -1.20% | — |
| 3/26/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -6.20% | — |
| 3/26/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | -0.70% | — | 3.20% | — |
| 3/26/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | 0.00% | — |
| 3/26/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.80% | — |
| 3/26/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | -0.30% | — |
