Front-end Treasury yields are up 9-15 basis points as Brent crude oil prices surge above $113 per barrel.
The Bank of England voted unanimously to hold its policy rate unchanged at 3.75% and said it “stands ready to act” to tackle any inflation surge tied to the war in the Middle East. The Fed was less reactive to the Iran conflict in yesterday’s FOMC official statement, but they appear very comfortable to remain on the sidelines until there is a clearer picture on the inflation and labor market trajectory. Their updated forecasts included upgrades to the median GDP forecast over the next few years, and the inflation forecast was also higher for 2026-2027. The median forecast for the fed funds rate was unchanged from December, showing one 25-basis point rate cut this year and next year. On the data front, initial jobless claims fell to 205,000 last week, the lowest since early January.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 3/19/2026 | Building Permits | 1380k | 1386k | 1376k | — |
| 3/19/2026 | Building Permits MoM | — | -4.70% | -5.40% | — |
| 3/19/2026 | Initial Jobless Claims | 215k | 205k | 213k | — |
| 3/19/2026 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | 210.75k | 212.00k | 211.50k |
| 3/19/2026 | Continuing Claims | 1852k | 1857k | 1850k | 1847k |
| 3/19/2026 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 8 | 18.1 | 16.3 | — |
| 3/19/2026 | Leading Index | -0.10% | — | -0.20% | — |
| 3/19/2026 | New Home Sales | 722k | — | 745k | — |
| 3/19/2026 | New Home Sales MoM | -2.70% | — | -1.70% | — |
| 3/19/2026 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 3/19/2026 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | 0.50% | — | 1.00% | — |
| 3/19/2026 | Household Change in Net Worth | — | — | $6064b | — |
| 3/20/2026 | Bloomberg March United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 3/23/2026 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | — | — | 0.18 | — |
| 3/23/2026 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 3/24/2026 | ADP Weekly Employment Change | — | — | 9.000k | — |
| 3/24/2026 | Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity | — | — | -17.3 | — |
| 3/24/2026 | Nonfarm Productivity | 2.40% | — | 2.80% | — |
| 3/24/2026 | Unit Labor Costs | 3.40% | — | 2.80% | — |
| 3/24/2026 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | — | — | 51.6 | — |
| 3/24/2026 | S&P Global US Services PMI | — | — | 51.7 | — |
| 3/24/2026 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 51.9 | — |
| 3/24/2026 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | — | — | -10 | — |
| 3/24/2026 | Richmond Fed Business Conditions | — | — | -10 | — |
| 3/25/2026 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -10.90% | — |
| 3/25/2026 | Import Price Index MoM | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 3/25/2026 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | — | — | 0.40% | — |
| 3/25/2026 | Import Price Index YoY | — | — | -0.10% | — |
| 3/25/2026 | Export Price Index MoM | — | — | 0.60% | — |
| 3/25/2026 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 2.60% | — |
| 3/25/2026 | Current Account Balance | — | — | -$226.4b | — |
| 3/26/2026 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 205k | — |
| 3/26/2026 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 210.75k | — |
| 3/26/2026 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1857k | — |
| 3/26/2026 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | 5 | — |
