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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Global financial markets are responding to the joint military action of American and Israeli forces against Iran.

Oil prices initially spiked more than 10% yesterday evening and are currently up more than 8% on worries that the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil and light natural gas (LNG) consumption passes each day, could be closed. Treasury yields are up 5-7 basis points in the initial reaction as markets consider the inflation implications of energy supply disruptions, and U.S. equity index futures are down more than 1% as of 8:10am ET. President Trump said yesterday that the military campaign could last 4-5 weeks, but markets will likely remain in risk-off mode until the dust settles and there is more clarity on U.S. objectives. Defense Secretary Hegseth will be briefing reporters this morning.

Jason Haley
President & Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
3/2/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI51.4     —51.2
3/2/2026ISM Manufacturing51.5     —52.6
3/2/2026ISM Prices Paid60     —59
3/2/2026ISM New Orders53.3     —57.1
3/2/2026ISM Employment48.3     —48.1
3/03/2026Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.35m     —14.85m
3/4/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —0.40%
3/4/2026ADP Employment Change50k     —22k
3/4/2026S&P Global US Services PMI52.3     —52.3
3/4/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI52.3     —52.3
3/4/2026ISM Services Index53.5     —53.8
3/4/2026ISM Services Prices Paid67.8     —66.6
3/4/2026ISM Services New Orders53.6     —53.1
3/4/2026ISM Services Employment     —     —50.3
3/4/2026Fed Releases Beige Book   
3/5/2026Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —117.80%
3/5/2026Challenger Job Cuts Total     —     —108435
3/5/2026Import Price Index MoM0.30%     —0.10%
3/5/2026Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.60%     —0.40%
3/5/2026Import Price Index YoY0.20%     —0.00%
3/5/2026Export Price Index MoM0.10%     —0.30%
3/5/2026Export Price Index YoY     —     —3.10%
3/5/2026Nonfarm Productivity1.80%     —4.90%
3/5/2026Unit Labor Costs2.00%     —-1.90%
3/5/2026Initial Jobless Claims215k     —212k
3/5/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —220.25k
3/5/2026Continuing Claims1845k     —1833k
3/6/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.30%     —0.00%
3/6/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.00%     —0.00%
3/6/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.20%     —0.00%
3/6/2026Retail Sales Control Group0.30%     —-0.10%
3/6/2026Change in Nonfarm Payrolls60k     —130k
3/6/2026Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —-17k
3/6/2026Change in Private Payrolls70k     —172k
3/6/2026Change in Manufact. Payrolls-4k     —5k
3/6/2026Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —73k
3/6/2026Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.40%
3/6/2026Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.70%     —3.70%
3/6/2026Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3     —34.3
3/6/2026Unemployment Rate4.30%     —4.30%
3/6/2026Labor Force Participation Rate62.50%     —62.50%
3/6/2026Underemployment Rate     —     —8.00%
3/6/2026Business Inventories0.10%     —0.10%
3/6/2026Consumer Credit$13.300b     —$24.045b
3/9/2026NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.09%

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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