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Author Jason Haley

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Treasuries are little changed ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC announcement.

In Europe, ECB President Christine Lagarde effectively confirmed plans for an initial rate cut in June but said they can’t yet commit to a path of rate cuts after the first one. For today’s FOMC meeting, will Powell and his colleagues fuel more market volatility with unexpected shifts in guidance/tone or keep things relatively unchanged? This has been a bit of a struggle for Fed leaders over the last year, leading to much whipsaw in market conditions (not to say the market is innocent of overreaction). A new Summary of Economic Projections will be released today, revealing updated participant forecasts for GDP, unemployment, inflation, and the fed funds rate. The market has repriced over the last several weeks and is now essentially aligned with the Fed’s last dot plot (3 rate cuts in 2024). Will the Fed make material changes to these forecasts? That’s perhaps the biggest area of focus for market participants today, along with Powell’s press conference.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
03/20/24MBA Mortgage Applications—-1.60%7.10%—
03/20/24FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)5.50%—5.50%—
03/20/24FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)5.25%—5.25%—
03/20/24Interest on Reserve Balances Rate5.40%—5.40%—
03/21/24Current Account Balance-$209.0b—-$200.3b—
03/21/24Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook-2.8—5.2—
03/21/24Initial Jobless Claims213k—209k—
03/21/24Continuing Claims1820k—1811k—
03/21/24S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI51.8—52.2—
03/21/24S&P Global US Services PMI52—52.3—
03/21/24S&P Global US Composite PMI52.2—52.5—
03/21/24Leading Index-0.10%—-0.40%—
03/21/24Existing Home Sales3.94m—4.00m—
03/21/24Existing Home Sales MoM-1.50%—3.10%—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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