Treasury yields are down another 4-6 basis points this morning, bringing intermediate yields down 15 bps since yesterday afternoon’s FOMC decision.
There is some risk-off mixed into today’s price action after European Central Bank President Lagarde suggested tariffs would reduce GDP in the region by 0.3% in the first year. Major equity indices worldwide are in the red today, including U.S. equity futures.
Yesterday’s FOMC announcement provided markets with much to digest, but in the end, the Fed appears to be firmly in a wait-and-see mode amid heightened uncertainty related to trade policy. The updated median participant forecasts showed no changes in the projected path of the Fed funds rate from the last update in December (two rate cuts in 2025). However, the GDP forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were revised lower, while the inflation forecasts were revised higher. During the press conference, Powell said, “the right thing to do is to wait” while uncertainty is high. The biggest surprise from yesterday (and the driver of the rally in Treasuries) was the announcement that the pace of balance sheet reduction would be effectively cut in half starting April 1 and that it wouldn’t be a temporary pause due to debt ceiling concerns. The monthly runoff of Treasuries will be reduced from $25 billion to $5 billion.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 3/20/2025 | Current Account Balance | -$330.0b | -$303.9b | -$310.9b | -$310.3b |
| 3/20/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 224k | 223k | 220k | — |
| 3/20/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1887k | 1892k | 1870k | — |
| 3/20/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 9 | 12.5 | 18.1 | — |
| 3/20/2025 | Leading Index | -0.20% | — | -0.30% | — |
| 3/20/2025 | Existing Home Sales | 3.95m | — | 4.08m | — |
| 3/20/2025 | Existing Home Sales MoM | -3.20% | — | -4.90% | — |
| 3/24/2025 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | -0.14 | — | -0.03 | — |
| 3/24/2025 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | — | — | 52.7 | — |
| 3/24/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | — | — | 51 | — |
| 3/24/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 51.6 | — |
| 3/25/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity | — | — | -13.1 | — |
| 3/25/2025 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | — | — | 0.40% | — |
| 3/25/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | — | — | 0.52% | — |
| 3/25/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | — | — | 4.48% | — |
| 3/25/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 3.92% | — |
| 3/25/2025 | New Home Sales | 680k | — | 657k | — |
| 3/25/2025 | New Home Sales MoM | 3.50% | — | -10.50% | — |
| 3/25/2025 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 94 | — | 98.3 | — |
| 3/25/2025 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 136.5 | — |
| 3/25/2025 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 72.9 | — |
| 3/25/2025 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | — | — | 6 | — |
| 3/25/2025 | Richmond Fed Business Conditions | — | — | 1 | — |
| 3/25/2025 | Building Permits | — | — | 1456k | — |
| 3/25/2025 | Building Permits MoM | — | — | -1.20% | — |
| 3/26/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -6.20% | — |
| 3/26/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | -0.70% | — | 3.20% | — |
| 3/26/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | 0.00% | — |
| 3/26/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.80% | — |
| 3/26/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | -0.30% | — |
| 3/27/2025 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.50% | — | 2.30% | — |
| 3/27/2025 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.80% | — |
| 3/27/2025 | Personal Consumption | — | — | 4.20% | — |
| 3/27/2025 | GDP Price Index | — | — | 2.40% | — |
| 3/27/2025 | Core PCE Price Index QoQ | — | — | 2.70% | — |
| 3/27/2025 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$133.5b | — | -$153.3b | -$155.6b |
| 3/27/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 223k | — |
| 3/27/2025 | Retail Inventories MoM | — | — | -0.10% | — |
| 3/27/2025 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1892k | — |
| 3/27/2025 | Pending Home Sales MoM | — | — | -4.60% | — |
| 3/27/2025 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | — | -5.20% | — |
| 3/27/2025 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | -5 | — |
