A modest risk-off trade emerged in global markets overnight, generally attributed to tariff concerns and today’s expiration of about $4.5 trillion of options on stocks, indexes, and ETFs (“triple witching”).
There are no data releases today, but two Fed leaders will speak at separate events this morning (Goolsbee and Williams). Corporate credit spreads have recovered somewhat over the last week after notable widening on tariff concerns during the prior 2+ weeks. The Bloomberg US Corporate Investment Grade Index option adjusted spread has tightened 7 bps since last Thursday but remains 12 bps wider since February 19 when tariff worries escalated.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 3/17/2025 | Empire Manufacturing | -1.9 | -20 | 5.7 | — |
| 3/17/2025 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.60% | 0.20% | -0.90% | -1.20% |
| 3/17/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.30% | 0.30% | -0.40% | -0.60% |
| 3/17/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.40% | 0.50% | -0.50% | -0.80% |
| 3/17/2025 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.40% | 1.00% | -0.80% | -1.00% |
| 3/17/2025 | Business Inventories | 0.30% | 0.30% | -0.20% | — |
| 3/17/2025 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 42 | 39 | 42 | — |
| 3/18/2025 | Housing Starts | 1385k | 1501k | 1366k | 1350k |
| 3/18/2025 | Housing Starts MoM | 1.40% | 11.20% | -9.80% | -11.50% |
| 3/18/2025 | Building Permits | 1453k | 1456k | 1473k | — |
| 3/18/2025 | Building Permits MoM | -1.40% | -1.20% | -0.60% | — |
| 3/18/2025 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.00% | 0.40% | 0.30% | 0.40% |
| 3/18/2025 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.20% | 0.40% | 0.10% | — |
| 3/18/2025 | Import Price Index YoY | 1.60% | 2.00% | 1.90% | 1.80% |
| 3/18/2025 | Export Price Index MoM | -0.10% | 0.10% | 1.30% | — |
| 3/18/2025 | Export Price Index YoY | — | 2.10% | 2.70% | — |
| 3/18/2025 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | -19.3 | -10.5 | — |
| 3/18/2025 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.20% | 0.70% | 0.50% | 0.30% |
| 3/18/2025 | Capacity Utilization | 77.80% | 78.20% | 77.80% | 77.70% |
| 3/18/2025 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.30% | 0.90% | -0.10% | 0.10% |
| 3/19/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -6.20% | 11.20% | — |
| 3/19/2025 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 4.50% | 4.50% | 4.50% | — |
| 3/19/2025 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 4.25% | 4.25% | 4.25% | — |
| 3/19/2025 | Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate | 4.40% | 4.40% | 4.40% | — |
| 3/19/2025 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr | 3.88% | 3.88% | 4.38% | — |
| 3/19/2025 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr | 3.38% | 3.38% | 3.88% | — |
| 3/19/2025 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs | 3.13% | 3.13% | 3.38% | — |
| 3/19/2025 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run | 3.13% | 3.00% | 3.00% | — |
| 3/19/2025 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | -$45.2b | $72.0b | $75.0b |
| 3/19/2025 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | -$48.8b | $87.1b | $103.2b |
| 3/20/2025 | Current Account Balance | -$330.0b | -$303.9b | -$310.9b | -$310.3b |
| 3/20/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 224k | 223k | 220k | — |
| 3/20/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1887k | 1892k | 1870k | — |
| 3/20/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 9 | 12.5 | 18.1 | — |
| 3/20/2025 | Leading Index | -0.20% | -0.30% | -0.30% | -0.20% |
| 3/20/2025 | Existing Home Sales | 3.95m | 4.26m | 4.08m | 4.09m |
| 3/20/2025 | Existing Home Sales MoM | -3.20% | 4.20% | -4.90% | -4.70% |
