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Author Jason Haley

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Treasury yields are following oil prices higher this morning on further doubts about positive outcomes from US/Iran talks.

The 2-year Treasury yield is now at 3.93%, approaching 4% for the first time since last June. US equity index futures are pointing to another lower open this morning, down 0.67% – 0.92%. On the data front, initial jobless claims matched expectations, rising slightly to 210,000 last week. The number of Americans continuing to make unemployment claims fell more than expected to 1.82 million for the week ended March 14. Four different Fed Governors will be speaking later today.

Jason Haley
President & Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
3/26/2026Initial Jobless Claims210k210k205k
3/26/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg215.00k210.50k210.75k
3/26/2026Continuing Claims1849k1819k1857k
3/26/2026Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity3     —5
3/27/2026Bloomberg March United States Economic Survey   
3/27/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment54     —55.5
3/27/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions56.9     —57.8
3/27/2026U. of Mich. Expectations50.9     —54.1
3/27/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.90%     —3.40%
3/27/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.50%     —3.20%
3/27/2026Kansas City Fed Services Activity3     —6
3/30/2026Dallas Fed Manf. Activity     —     —0.2
3/31/2026FHFA House Price Index MoM     —     —0.10%
3/31/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA     —     —0.47%
3/31/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA     —     —1.38%
3/31/2026S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA     —     —1.27%
3/31/2026MNI Chicago PMI     —     —57.7
3/31/2026Conf. Board Consumer Confidence88.8     —91.2
3/31/2026Conf. Board Present Situation     —     —120
3/31/2026Conf. Board Expectations     —     —72
3/31/2026JOLTS Job Openings     —     —6946k
3/31/2026JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.20%
3/31/2026JOLTS Quits Level     —     —3137k
3/31/2026JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —2.00%
3/31/2026JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —1631k
3/31/2026JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.00%
3/31/2026Dallas Fed Services Activity     —     —-3.2
4/1/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-10.50%
4/1/2026ADP Employment Change     —     —63k
4/1/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM     —     —-0.20%
4/1/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM     —     —0.00%
4/1/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas     —     —0.30%
4/1/2026Retail Sales Control Group     —     —0.30%
4/1/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —52.4
4/1/2026ISM Manufacturing52.1     —52.4
4/1/2026ISM Prices Paid     —     —70.5
4/1/2026ISM New Orders     —     —55.8
4/1/2026Business Inventories     —     —0.10%
4/1/2026ISM Employment     —     —48.8
4/01/2026Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.80m     —15.75m
4/2/2026Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —-71.90%
4/2/2026Challenger Job Cuts Total     —     —48307
4/2/2026Trade Balance-$55.0b     —-$54.5b
4/2/2026Imports MoM     —     —-0.70%
4/2/2026Exports MoM     —     —5.50%
4/2/2026Initial Jobless Claims     —     —210k
4/2/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —210.50k
4/2/2026Continuing Claims     —     —1819k

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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