Financial markets are relatively calm to start the day despite yesterday’s headlines related to auto tariffs.
U.S. equity futures are unchanged to slightly lower, and long-end Treasury yields are 2-3 basis points higher. While there was much attention paid to the announcement of 25% tariffs on auto imports, President Trump said yesterday that the reciprocal tariffs expected to be announced on April 2 would be “very lenient.” As such, markets are in a wait-and-see mode for further details. Initial jobless claims were essentially unchanged at 224,000 last week, a still relatively low number of unemployment filings. The third estimate of Q4 2024 GDP was little changed, with modest downward revisions to personal consumption and inflation metrics.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 3/27/2025 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.30% | 2.40% | 2.30% | — |
| 3/27/2025 | Personal Consumption | 4.20% | 4.00% | 4.20% | — |
| 3/27/2025 | GDP Price Index | 2.40% | 2.30% | 2.40% | — |
| 3/27/2025 | Core PCE Price Index QoQ | 2.70% | 2.60% | 2.70% | — |
| 3/27/2025 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$139.0b | -$147.9b | -$153.3b | -$155.6b |
| 3/27/2025 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.70% | 0.30% | 0.80% | — |
| 3/27/2025 | Retail Inventories MoM | 0.60% | 0.10% | -0.10% | 0.10% |
| 3/27/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 225k | 224k | 223k | 225k |
| 3/27/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1886k | 1856k | 1892k | 1881k |
| 3/27/2025 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 1.00% | — | -4.60% | — |
| 3/27/2025 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | -3.50% | — | -5.20% | — |
| 3/27/2025 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | -5 | — | -5 | — |
| 3/28/2025 | Personal Income | 0.40% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 3/28/2025 | Personal Spending | 0.50% | — | -0.20% | — |
| 3/28/2025 | Real Personal Spending | 0.30% | — | -0.50% | — |
| 3/28/2025 | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 3/28/2025 | PCE Price Index YoY | 2.50% | — | 2.50% | — |
| 3/28/2025 | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 3/28/2025 | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 2.70% | — | 2.60% | — |
| 3/28/2025 | Bloomberg March United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 3/28/2025 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 57.9 | — | 57.9 | — |
| 3/28/2025 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 63.5 | — | 63.5 | — |
| 3/28/2025 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 54.1 | — | 54.2 | — |
| 3/28/2025 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 4.90% | — | 4.90% | — |
| 3/28/2025 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.90% | — | 3.90% | — |
| 3/28/2025 | Kansas City Fed Services Activity | — | — | 2 | — |
| 3/31/2025 | MNI Chicago PMI | 45.5 | — | 45.5 | — |
| 3/31/2025 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | -8.3 | — |
| 4/1/2025 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | — | — | 49.8 | — |
| 4/1/2025 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.20% | — | -0.20% | — |
| 4/1/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings | — | — | 7740k | — |
| 4/1/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings Rate | — | — | 4.60% | — |
| 4/1/2025 | JOLTS Quits Level | — | — | 3266k | — |
| 4/1/2025 | JOLTS Quits Rate | — | — | 2.10% | — |
| 4/1/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Level | — | — | 1635k | — |
| 4/1/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Rate | — | — | 1.00% | — |
| 4/1/2025 | ISM Manufacturing | 49.8 | — | 50.3 | — |
| 4/1/2025 | ISM Prices Paid | — | — | 62.4 | — |
| 4/1/2025 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 48.6 | — |
| 4/1/2025 | ISM Employment | — | — | 47.6 | — |
| 4/1/2025 | Dallas Fed Services Activity | — | — | 4.6 | — |
| 4/1/2025 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 15.95m | — | 16.00m | — |
| 4/2/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -2.00% | — |
| 4/2/2025 | ADP Employment Change | 118k | — | 77k | — |
| 4/2/2025 | Factory Orders | 0.50% | — | 1.70% | — |
| 4/2/2025 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 4/2/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | — | — | 0.90% | — |
| 4/2/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | 0.70% | — |
| 4/2/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | -0.30% | — |
| 4/2/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.90% | — |
| 4/3/2025 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 103.20% | — |
| 4/3/2025 | Trade Balance | -$110.0b | — | -$131.4b | — |
| 4/3/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 224k | — |
| 4/3/2025 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1856k | — |
| 4/3/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | — | — | 54.3 | — |
| 4/3/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 53.5 | — |
| 4/3/2025 | ISM Services Index | 53.2 | — | 53.5 | — |
| 4/3/2025 | ISM Services Prices Paid | — | — | 62.6 | — |
| 4/3/2025 | ISM Services New Orders | — | — | 52.2 | — |
| 4/3/2025 | ISM Services Employment | — | — | 53.9 | — |
