Treasury yields moved higher overnight after Fed Governor Waller delivered a speech titled “There’s Still No Rush.”
As the title might suggest, Waller referred to recent inflation data as “disappointing” and said he would like to see “at least a couple months of inflation data” before cutting. These comments are not a major surprise coming from Waller and are not really misaligned with the narrative that emerged from the last Fed meeting. Prior to the June 12 FOMC meeting, there will have been two more CPI reports released (March & April) and three PCE reports (February, March, & April). Fed funds futures are currently pricing a 68% probability of a June rate cut. The bond market will close early today (2pm ET) and be closed all day tomorrow in observance of Good Friday.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 3/28/2024 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 3.20% | 3.40% | 3.20% | — |
| 3/28/2024 | Personal Consumption | 3.00% | 3.30% | 3.00% | — |
| 3/28/2024 | GDP Price Index | 1.60% | 1.60% | 1.60% | — |
| 3/28/2024 | Core PCE Price Index QoQ | 2.10% | 2.00% | 2.10% | — |
| 3/28/2024 | Initial Jobless Claims | 212k | 210k | 210k | 212k |
| 3/28/2024 | Continuing Claims | 1815k | 1819k | 1807k | 1795k |
| 3/28/2024 | MNI Chicago PMI | 46 | — | 44 | — |
| 3/28/2024 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 1.50% | — | -4.90% | — |
| 3/28/2024 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | — | -6.80% | — |
| 3/28/2024 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 76.5 | — | 76.5 | — |
| 3/28/2024 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 79.6 | — | 79.4 | — |
| 3/28/2024 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 74.7 | — | 74.6 | — |
| 3/28/2024 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 3.10% | — | 3.00% | — |
| 3/28/2024 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 2.90% | — | 2.90% | — |
| 3/28/2024 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | -4 | — | -4 | — |
| 3/29/2024 | Personal Income | 0.40% | — | 1.00% | — |
| 3/29/2024 | Personal Spending | 0.50% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 3/29/2024 | Real Personal Spending | 0.10% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 3/29/2024 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 3/29/2024 | PCE Deflator YoY | 2.50% | — | 2.40% | — |
| 3/29/2024 | PCE Core Deflator MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 3/29/2024 | PCE Core Deflator YoY | 2.80% | — | 2.80% | — |
| 3/29/2024 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$90.0b | — | -$90.2b | -$90.5b |
| 3/29/2024 | Retail Inventories MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.50% | 0.40% |
| 3/29/2024 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.20% | — | -0.30% | — |
| 3/29/2024 | Kansas City Fed Services Activity | — | — | 12 | — |
| 4/1/2024 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | — | — | 52.5 | — |
| 4/1/2024 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.50% | — | -0.20% | — |
| 4/1/2024 | ISM Manufacturing | 48.5 | — | 47.8 | — |
| 4/1/2024 | ISM Prices Paid | — | — | 52.5 | — |
| 4/1/2024 | ISM New Orders | 49.8 | — | 49.2 | — |
| 4/1/2024 | ISM Employment | — | — | 45.9 | — |
| 4/2/2024 | JOLTS Job Openings | — | — | 8863k | — |
| 4/2/2024 | Factory Orders | 1.00% | — | -3.60% | — |
| 4/2/2024 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | -0.80% | — |
| 4/2/2024 | Durable Goods Orders | — | — | 1.40% | — |
| 4/2/2024 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | 0.50% | — |
| 4/2/2024 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.70% | — |
| 4/2/2024 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | -0.40% | — |
| 4/2/2024 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 15.95m | — | 15.81m | — |
| 4/3/2024 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -0.70% | — |
| 4/3/2024 | ADP Employment Change | 150k | — | 140k | — |
| 4/3/2024 | S&P Global US Services PMI | — | — | 51.7 | — |
| 4/3/2024 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 52.2 | — |
| 4/3/2024 | ISM Services Index | 52.6 | — | 52.6 | — |
| 4/3/2024 | ISM Services Prices Paid | — | — | 58.6 | — |
| 4/3/2024 | ISM Services Employment | — | — | 48 | — |
| 4/3/2024 | ISM Services New Orders | — | — | 56.1 | — |
| 4/4/2024 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 8.80% | — |
| 4/4/2024 | Trade Balance | -$65.7b | — | -$67.4b | — |
| 4/4/2024 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 210k | — |
| 4/4/2024 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1819k | — |
