The Treasury curve bull flattened overnight on softer Spanish and French inflation readings, with long-end yields down 3-4 basis points.
The rally has extended following the release of February income and spending data. Personal income rose 0.8% last month, twice expectations, but spending came in below expectations at 0.1% on an inflation-adjusted basis (0.3% expected). The spending data coincides with separate February reports showing sharp declines in consumer sentiment in response to tariff concerns. Core PCE was higher than expected, rising 0.4% m/m in February. On a year-over-year basis, core PCE rose to 2.8% from an upwardly revised 2.7% the prior month. Treasury yields are now 2-6 basis points lower in the immediate reaction to the data, and all attention now shifts to the tariff announcements from the White House next week.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 3/28/2025 | 0.40% | 0.80% | 0.90% | 0.70% |
| 3/28/2025 | 0.50% | 0.40% | -0.20% | -0.30% |
| 3/28/2025 | 0.30% | 0.10% | -0.50% | -0.60% |
| 3/28/2025 | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.30% | — |
| 3/28/2025 | 2.50% | 2.50% | 2.50% | — |
| 3/28/2025 | 0.30% | 0.40% | 0.30% | — |
| 3/28/2025 | 2.70% | 2.80% | 2.60% | 2.70% |
| 3/28/2025 | ||||
| 3/28/2025 | 57.9 | — | 57.9 | — |
| 3/28/2025 | 63.5 | — | 63.5 | — |
| 3/28/2025 | 54.1 | — | 54.2 | — |
| 3/28/2025 | 4.90% | — | 4.90% | — |
| 3/28/2025 | 3.90% | — | 3.90% | — |
| 3/28/2025 | — | — | 2 | — |
| 3/31/2025 | 45.5 | — | 45.5 | — |
| 3/31/2025 | -5 | — | -8.3 | — |
| 4/1/2025 | — | — | 49.8 | — |
| 4/1/2025 | 0.20% | — | -0.20% | — |
| 4/1/2025 | 7690k | — | 7740k | — |
| 4/1/2025 | — | — | 4.60% | — |
| 4/1/2025 | — | — | 3266k | — |
| 4/1/2025 | — | — | 2.10% | — |
| 4/1/2025 | — | — | 1635k | — |
| 4/1/2025 | — | — | 1.00% | — |
| 4/1/2025 | 49.8 | — | 50.3 | — |
| 4/1/2025 | — | — | 62.4 | — |
| 4/1/2025 | — | — | 48.6 | — |
| 4/1/2025 | — | — | 47.6 | — |
| 4/1/2025 | — | — | 4.6 | — |
| 4/1/2025 | 15.90m | — | 16.00m | — |
| 4/2/2025 | — | — | -2.00% | — |
| 4/2/2025 | 119k | — | 77k | — |
| 4/2/2025 | 0.40% | — | 1.70% | — |
| 4/2/2025 | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 4/2/2025 | — | — | 0.90% | — |
| 4/2/2025 | — | — | 0.70% | — |
| 4/2/2025 | — | — | -0.30% | — |
| 4/2/2025 | — | — | 0.90% | — |
| 4/3/2025 | — | — | 103.20% | — |
| 4/3/2025 | -$110.0b | — | -$131.4b | — |
| 4/3/2025 | — | — | 224k | — |
| 4/3/2025 | — | — | 1856k | — |
| 4/3/2025 | — | — | 54.3 | — |
| 4/3/2025 | — | — | 53.5 | — |
| 4/3/2025 | 53.1 | — | 53.5 | — |
| 4/3/2025 | — | — | 62.6 | — |
| 4/3/2025 | — | — | 52.2 | — |
| 4/3/2025 | — | — | 53.9 | — |
| 4/4/2025 | 135k | — | 151k | — |
| 4/4/2025 | 125k | — | 140k | — |
| 4/4/2025 | — | — | 10k | — |
| 4/4/2025 | — | — | -2k | — |
| 4/4/2025 | 4.10% | — | 4.10% | — |
| 4/4/2025 | — | — | 62.40% | — |
| 4/4/2025 | — | — | 8.00% | — |
| 4/4/2025 | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 4/4/2025 | 3.90% | — | 4.00% | — |
| 4/4/2025 | 34.2 | — | 34.1 | — |
