Treasury yields are up 3 basis points across the curve in sympathy with a selloff in European debt markets in anticipation of heavier defense spending (inflation implications).
Markets are also awaiting the Trump administration’s announcement on tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and China. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said yesterday new tariffs will go into effect tomorrow, but President Trump would ultimately decide whether to stick with the planned 25% target. U.S. manufacturing data for February will be released later this morning, but the big focus for the week will be on trade announcements and the jobs report on Friday. The current median economist forecast on Bloomberg calls for 160,000 jobs added to nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 3/3/2025 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 51.6 | — | 51.6 | — |
| 3/3/2025 | Construction Spending MoM | -0.10% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 3/3/2025 | ISM Manufacturing | 50.8 | — | 50.9 | — |
| 3/3/2025 | ISM Prices Paid | 56.3 | — | 54.9 | — |
| 3/3/2025 | ISM New Orders | 54.6 | — | 55.1 | — |
| 3/3/2025 | ISM Employment | 50.1 | — | 50.3 | — |
| 3/3/2025 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 16.08m | — | 15.60m | — |
| 3/5/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -1.20% | — |
| 3/5/2025 | ADP Employment Change | 147k | — | 183k | — |
| 3/5/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 49.7 | — | 49.7 | — |
| 3/5/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 50.4 | — |
| 3/5/2025 | Factory Orders | 1.60% | — | -0.90% | — |
| 3/5/2025 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 3/5/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | 3.10% | — | 3.10% | — |
| 3/5/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | 0.00% | — |
| 3/5/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.80% | — |
| 3/5/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | -0.30% | — |
| 3/5/2025 | ISM Services Index | 52.6 | — | 52.8 | — |
| 3/5/2025 | ISM Services Prices Paid | — | — | 60.4 | — |
| 3/5/2025 | ISM Services New Orders | — | — | 51.3 | — |
| 3/5/2025 | ISM Services Employment | — | — | 52.3 | — |
| 3/5/2025 | Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 3/6/2025 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | -39.50% | — |
| 3/6/2025 | Trade Balance | -$128.8b | — | -$98.4b | — |
| 3/6/2025 | Nonfarm Productivity | 1.20% | — | 1.20% | — |
| 3/6/2025 | Unit Labor Costs | 3.00% | — | 3.00% | — |
| 3/6/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 235k | — | 242k | — |
| 3/6/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1875k | — | 1862k | — |
| 3/6/2025 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | 1.00% | — |
| 3/6/2025 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.70% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 160k | — | 143k | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | 100k | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Change in Private Payrolls | 142k | — | 111k | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 4k | — | 3k | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4.10% | — | 4.10% | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.2 | — | 34.1 | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Unemployment Rate | 4.00% | — | 4.00% | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.60% | — | 62.60% | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.50% | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Consumer Credit | $14.500b | — | $40.847b | — |
| 3/10/2025 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | — | — | 3.00% | — |
