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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

We open the morning with essentially a repeat of yesterday’s trading activity.

Oil prices are up another 6% on the day as Israel and the US stepped up attacks against Iran as well as reports of a fire at an important oil storage hub in the UAE. Treasury yields are up another 4-8 basis points, with front-end yields once again moving the most on near-term inflation worries. Equity index futures are down 1.5%-2.0% as of 8:15am ET, but price action in fixed income credit markets appears more orderly for now. Later this morning, New York Fed President John Williams will provide a keynote address at the Governmental Affairs Conference (GAC), and Neel Kashkari will speak separately at Bloomberg conference.

Jason Haley
President & Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
3/3/2026Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.37m     —14.85m     —
3/4/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —0.40%     —
3/4/2026ADP Employment Change50k     —22k     —
3/4/2026S&P Global US Services PMI52.3     —52.3     —
3/4/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI52.3     —52.3     —
3/4/2026ISM Services Index53.5     —53.8     —
3/4/2026ISM Services Prices Paid67.8     —66.6     —
3/4/2026ISM Services New Orders53.6     —53.1     —
3/4/2026ISM Services Employment     —     —50.3     —
3/4/2026Fed Releases Beige Book    
3/5/2026Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —117.80%     —
3/5/2026Challenger Job Cuts Total     —     —108435     —
3/5/2026Import Price Index MoM0.30%     —0.10%     —
3/5/2026Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.50%     —0.40%     —
3/5/2026Import Price Index YoY0.20%     —0.00%     —
3/5/2026Export Price Index MoM0.20%     —0.30%     —
3/5/2026Export Price Index YoY     —     —3.10%     —
3/5/2026Nonfarm Productivity1.80%     —4.90%     —
3/5/2026Unit Labor Costs2.00%     —-1.90%     —
3/5/2026Initial Jobless Claims215k     —212k     —
3/5/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —220.25k     —
3/5/2026Continuing Claims1848k     —1833k     —
3/6/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.30%     —0.00%     —
3/6/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.00%     —0.00%     —
3/6/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.20%     —0.00%     —
3/6/2026Retail Sales Control Group0.30%     —-0.10%     —
3/6/2026Change in Nonfarm Payrolls59k     —130k     —
3/6/2026Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —-17k     —
3/6/2026Change in Private Payrolls65k     —172k     —
3/6/2026Change in Manufact. Payrolls-2k     —5k     —
3/6/2026Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —73k     —
3/6/2026Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.40%     —
3/6/2026Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.70%     —3.70%     —
3/6/2026Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3     —34.3     —
3/6/2026Unemployment Rate4.30%     —4.30%     —
3/6/2026Labor Force Participation Rate62.50%     —62.50%     —
3/6/2026Underemployment Rate     —     —8.00%     —
3/6/2026Business Inventories0.10%     —0.10%     —
3/6/2026Consumer Credit$12.650b     —$24.045b     —
3/9/2026NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.09%     —
3/10/2026NFIB Small Business Optimism     —     —99.3     —
3/10/2026Existing Home Sales3.85m     —3.91m     —
3/10/2026Existing Home Sales MoM-1.50%     —-8.40%     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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