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Author Jason Haley

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Treasury yields are down 4-6 basis points to start the week as the bond market narrative shifts from inflation worries (oil supply shock) to growth concerns (demand destruction).

This price action coincides with reports of increased American troop movements into the Middle East and the threat of escalation from President Trump if the Strait of Hormuz isn’t opened soon. US equity index futures aren’t following the risk-off move in the bond market, with futures up approximately 0.7% an hour before the open. This week’s economic calendar is headlined by the March Jobs report on Friday, which is expected to show 60,000 jobs added to nonfarm payrolls and no change in the unemployment rate (4.4%).

Jason Haley
President & Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
3/30/2026Dallas Fed Manf. Activity1.5     —0.2
3/31/2026FHFA House Price Index MoM0.10%     —0.10%
3/31/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA0.35%     —0.47%
3/31/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA1.37%     —1.38%
3/31/2026S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA     —     —1.27%
3/31/2026MNI Chicago PMI54.6     —57.7
3/31/2026Conf. Board Consumer Confidence88     —91.2
3/31/2026Conf. Board Present Situation     —     —120
3/31/2026Conf. Board Expectations     —     —72
3/31/2026JOLTS Job Openings6895k     —6946k
3/31/2026JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.20%
3/31/2026JOLTS Quits Level     —     —3137k
3/31/2026JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —2.00%
3/31/2026JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —1631k
3/31/2026JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.00%
3/31/2026Dallas Fed Services Activity     —     —-3.2
4/1/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-10.50%
4/1/2026ADP Employment Change40k     —63k
4/1/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM0.50%     —-0.20%
4/1/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.30%     —0.00%
4/1/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%     —0.30%
4/1/2026Retail Sales Control Group0.30%     —0.30%
4/1/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI52.4     —52.4
4/1/2026ISM Manufacturing52.4     —52.4
4/1/2026ISM Prices Paid73.8     —70.5
4/1/2026ISM New Orders     —     —55.8
4/1/2026Business Inventories0.00%     —0.10%
4/1/2026ISM Employment     —     —48.8
4/01/2026Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.88m     —15.75m
4/2/2026Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —-71.90%
4/2/2026Challenger Job Cuts Total     —     —48307
4/2/2026Trade Balance-$59.4b     —-$54.5b
4/2/2026Imports MoM-0.10%     —-0.70%
4/2/2026Exports MoM-2.40%     —5.50%
4/2/2026Initial Jobless Claims212k     —210k
4/2/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —210.50k
4/2/2026Continuing Claims1833k     —1819k
4/3/2026Change in Nonfarm Payrolls60k     —-92k
4/3/2026Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —-69k
4/3/2026Change in Private Payrolls75k     —-86k
4/3/2026Change in Manufact. Payrolls-4k     —-12k
4/3/2026Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —6k
4/3/2026Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.40%
4/3/2026Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.70%     —3.80%
4/3/2026Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3     —34.3
4/3/2026Unemployment Rate4.40%     —4.40%
4/3/2026Labor Force Participation Rate62.10%     —62.00%
4/3/2026Underemployment Rate     —     —7.90%
4/3/2026S&P Global US Services PMI51.1     —51.1
4/3/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —51.4
4/6/2026ISM Reschedules March Services PMI to April 6   
4/6/2026ISM Services Index55     —56.1
4/6/2026ISM Services Prices Paid     —     —63
4/6/2026ISM Services New Orders     —     —58.6
4/6/2026ISM Services Employment     —     —51.8

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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