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Author Hafizan Hamzah

Published

Estimated

Treasuries are rallying, and equities are selling off in response to concerns about tariffs.

Yields are 4 to 5 bps lower across the curve while equity futures are all in negative territory, led by the S&P, which is down 1.02%. The S&P is on track for its worst quarter since 2022, with the index down 5.1% so far. The Trump administration’s tariffs are set to start this Wednesday, but details remain murky, which has made it difficult for investors to price risk. Safe-haven assets like Treasuries and gold have performed well through the first quarter of 2025. Treasuries are up over 2.5%, while gold has reached another record high of $3,100 per ounce.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPrior
3/31/2025MNI Chicago PMI45     —45.5
3/31/2025Dallas Fed Manf. Activity-5     —-8.3
4/01/2025S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI49.8     —49.8
4/01/2025Construction Spending MoM0.30%     —-0.20%
4/01/2025JOLTS Job Openings7680k     —7740k
4/01/2025JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.60%
4/01/2025JOLTS Quits Level3186k     —3266k
4/01/2025JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —2.10%
4/01/2025JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —1635k
4/01/2025JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.00%
4/01/2025ISM Manufacturing49.5     —50.3
4/01/2025ISM Prices Paid64.5     —62.4
4/01/2025ISM New Orders     —     —48.6
4/01/2025ISM Employment     —     —47.6
4/01/2025Dallas Fed Services Activity     —     —4.6
4/01/2025Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.00m     —16.00m
4/02/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-2.00%
4/02/2025ADP Employment Change120k     —77k
4/02/2025Factory Orders0.50%     —1.70%
4/02/2025Factory Orders Ex Trans0.40%     —0.20%
4/02/2025Durable Goods Orders0.90%     —0.90%
4/02/2025Durables Ex Transportation0.70%     —0.70%
4/02/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —-0.30%
4/02/2025Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.90%
4/03/2025Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —103.20%
4/03/2025Trade Balance-$123.4b     —-$131.4b
4/03/2025Initial Jobless Claims225k     —224k
4/03/2025Continuing Claims1867k     —1856k
4/03/2025S&P Global US Services PMI54.1     —54.3
4/03/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —53.5
4/03/2025ISM Services Index53     —53.5
4/03/2025ISM Services Prices Paid     —     —62.6
4/03/2025ISM Services New Orders     —     —52.2
4/03/2025ISM Services Employment     —     —53.9
4/04/2025Change in Nonfarm Payrolls138k     —151k
4/04/2025Change in Private Payrolls130k     —140k
4/04/2025Change in Manufact. Payrolls0k     —10k
4/04/2025Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —-2k
4/04/2025Unemployment Rate4.10%     —4.10%
4/04/2025Labor Force Participation Rate62.40%     —62.40%
4/04/2025Underemployment Rate     —     —8.00%
4/04/2025Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.30%
4/04/2025Average Hourly Earnings YoY4.00%     —4.00%
4/04/2025Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.2     —34.1

Hafizan Hamzah

Senior Director, Investment Management Group

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