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Author Jason Haley

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It was a choppy overnight session in financial markets after reports of an Iranian drone attack on a Kuwaiti oil tanker were countered with reports that President Trump is considering ending the military campaign even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

Treasury yields are down another 3-4 basis points (bps) following yesterday’s rally that sent front-end yields 8 bps lower. Oil futures are now modestly lower despite the oil tanker attack, and US equity index futures are up more than 1%. Later this morning, January home price data will be released, as will the February JOLTS report. Multiple Fed leaders will speak today, including a discussion by Governor Michael Barr on stablecoin regulation.

Jason Haley
President & Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
3/31/2026FHFA House Price Index MoM0.10%     —0.10%
3/31/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA0.35%     —0.47%
3/31/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA1.38%     —1.38%
3/31/2026S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA     —     —1.27%
3/31/2026MNI Chicago PMI55     —57.7
3/31/2026Conf. Board Consumer Confidence87.9     —91.2
3/31/2026Conf. Board Present Situation118     —120
3/31/2026Conf. Board Expectations68.4     —72
3/31/2026JOLTS Job Openings6890k     —6946k
3/31/2026JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.20%
3/31/2026JOLTS Quits Level3120k     —3137k
3/31/2026JOLTS Quits Rate2.00%     —2.00%
3/31/2026JOLTS Layoffs Level1668k     —1631k
3/31/2026JOLTS Layoffs Rate1.10%     —1.00%
3/31/2026Dallas Fed Services Activity-4.6     —-3.2
4/1/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-10.50%
4/1/2026ADP Employment Change40k     —63k
4/1/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM0.50%     —-0.20%
4/1/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.30%     —0.00%
4/1/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%     —0.30%
4/1/2026Retail Sales Control Group0.30%     —0.30%
4/1/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI52.4     —52.4
4/1/2026ISM Manufacturing52.3     —52.4
4/1/2026ISM Prices Paid73.8     —70.5
4/1/2026ISM New Orders     —     —55.8
4/1/2026Business Inventories0.10%     —0.10%
4/1/2026ISM Employment49     —48.8
4/01/2026Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.85m     —15.75m
4/2/2026Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —-71.90%
4/2/2026Challenger Job Cuts Total     —     —48307
4/2/2026Trade Balance-$60.6b     —-$54.5b
4/2/2026Imports MoM-0.20%     —-0.70%
4/2/2026Exports MoM-2.30%     —5.50%
4/2/2026Initial Jobless Claims212k     —210k
4/2/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg205.00k     —210.50k
4/2/2026Continuing Claims1837k     —1819k
4/3/2026Change in Nonfarm Payrolls65k     —-92k
4/3/2026Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —-69k
4/3/2026Change in Private Payrolls75k     —-86k
4/3/2026Change in Manufact. Payrolls-5k     —-12k
4/3/2026Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —6k
4/3/2026Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.40%
4/3/2026Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.70%     —3.80%
4/3/2026Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3     —34.3
4/3/2026Unemployment Rate4.40%     —4.40%
4/3/2026Labor Force Participation Rate62.00%     —62.00%
4/3/2026Underemployment Rate7.90%     —7.90%
4/3/2026S&P Global US Services PMI51.1     —51.1
4/3/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI51.4     —51.4
4/6/2026ISM Reschedules March Services PMI to April 6   
4/6/2026ISM Services Index54.9     —56.1
4/6/2026ISM Services Prices Paid     —     —63
4/6/2026ISM Services New Orders     —     —58.6
4/6/2026ISM Services Employment     —     —51.8
4/7/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —10.000k
4/7/2026Durable Goods Orders     —     —0.00%
4/7/2026Durables Ex Transportation     —     —0.40%
4/7/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —     —
4/7/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —-0.10%
4/7/2026NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.00%
4/7/2026Consumer Credit     —     —$8.050b

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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