It’s a quiet start to what should be a busy week for financial markets.
Treasury yields are up 4 basis points in parallel fashion across the curve, taking back some of Friday’s rally. Market catalysts for this week will be the January JOLTS report (Wednesday), Fed Chair Powell’s Congressional testimony (Wednesday/Thursday), and the February jobs report (Friday). Powell isn’t expected to get off the recent script too much, but with policy uncertainty still high, markets will be clinging to any hints of fresh guidance. For Friday’s employment report, payrolls are expected to have added 200,000 jobs last month, and the headline unemployment rate is expected to have held steady at 3.7%. Besides Powell’s testimony, six other Fed leaders will make appearances this week, beginning with Philadelphia Fed President Harker later this morning.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 3/5/2024 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 51.4 | — | 51.3 | — |
| 3/5/2024 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | 51.4 | — | 51.4 | — |
| 3/5/2024 | Factory Orders | -2.90% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 3/5/2024 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | -0.10% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 3/5/2024 | Durable Goods Orders | -6.10% | — | -6.10% | — |
| 3/5/2024 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | -0.30% | — |
| 3/5/2024 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 3/5/2024 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.80% | — |
| 3/5/2024 | ISM Services Index | 53 | — | 53.4 | — |
| 3/5/2024 | ISM Services Prices Paid | — | — | 64 | — |
| 3/5/2024 | ISM Services Employment | — | — | 50.5 | — |
| 3/5/2024 | ISM Services New Orders | — | — | 55 | — |
| 3/6/2024 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -5.60% | — |
| 3/6/2024 | ADP Employment Change | 150k | — | 107k | — |
| 3/6/2024 | JOLTS Job Openings | 8900k | — | 9026k | — |
| 3/6/2024 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | -0.10% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 3/6/2024 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | 0.70% | — |
| 3/6/2024 | Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 3/7/2024 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | -20.00% | — |
| 3/7/2024 | Trade Balance | -$63.5b | — | -$62.2b | — |
| 3/7/2024 | Nonfarm Productivity | 3.10% | — | 3.20% | — |
| 3/7/2024 | Unit Labor Costs | 0.70% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 3/7/2024 | Initial Jobless Claims | 215k | — | 215k | — |
| 3/7/2024 | Continuing Claims | 1880k | — | 1905k | — |
| 3/7/2024 | Household Change in Net Worth | — | — | -$1312b | — |
| 3/7/2024 | Consumer Credit | $10.000b | — | $1.561b | — |
| 3/8/2024 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | 126k | — |
| 3/8/2024 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 200k | — | 353k | — |
| 3/8/2024 | Change in Private Payrolls | 163k | — | 317k | — |
| 3/8/2024 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 10k | — | 23k | — |
| 3/8/2024 | Unemployment Rate | 3.70% | — | 3.70% | — |
| 3/8/2024 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 3/8/2024 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4.30% | — | 4.50% | — |
| 3/8/2024 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.3 | — | 34.1 | — |
| 3/8/2024 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.60% | — | 62.50% | — |
| 3/8/2024 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.20% | — |
| 3/11/2024 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | — | — | 3.00% | — |
