Financial markets are reacting to a flurry of headlines over the last 24 hours.
The Trump administration moved forward with 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as well as an additional 10% levy on Chinese imports. Canada said it will initiate retaliatory 25% tariffs on C$30 billion worth of U.S. goods starting today and another C$125 billion of goods in 21 days. The White House said it also still plans to initiate universal reciprocal tariffs on April 2. In separate news, Opec+ confirmed reports of increased crude oil production, which is contributing to a 1-2% decline in oil prices this morning and are down nearly 4% over the last 2 days.
Front-end Treasury yields are down 2-4 basis points this morning as fed funds futures are now priced fully for three rate cuts this year amid speculation of weaker economic growth. In other markets, major European equity indices are down as much as 3% following yesterday’s tariff-induced selloff in U.S. stocks and anticipation of similar measures taken on European goods. S&P 500 futures are down 0.75% an hour before the open following yesterday’s 1.75% decline.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 3/5/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -1.20% | — |
| 3/5/2025 | ADP Employment Change | 140k | — | 183k | — |
| 3/5/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 49.7 | — | 49.7 | — |
| 3/5/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 50.4 | — |
| 3/5/2025 | Factory Orders | 1.70% | — | -0.90% | — |
| 3/5/2025 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 3/5/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | 3.10% | — | 3.10% | — |
| 3/5/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.00% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 3/5/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.80% | — |
| 3/5/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | -0.30% | — |
| 3/5/2025 | ISM Services Index | 52.5 | — | 52.8 | — |
| 3/5/2025 | ISM Services Prices Paid | 60 | — | 60.4 | — |
| 3/5/2025 | ISM Services New Orders | — | — | 51.3 | — |
| 3/5/2025 | ISM Services Employment | — | — | 52.3 | — |
| 3/5/2025 | Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 3/6/2025 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | -39.50% | — |
| 3/6/2025 | Trade Balance | -$128.8b | — | -$98.4b | — |
| 3/6/2025 | Nonfarm Productivity | 1.20% | — | 1.20% | — |
| 3/6/2025 | Unit Labor Costs | 3.00% | — | 3.00% | — |
| 3/6/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 233k | — | 242k | — |
| 3/6/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1875k | — | 1862k | — |
| 3/6/2025 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | 0.50% | — | 1.00% | — |
| 3/6/2025 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.70% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 160k | — | 143k | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | 100k | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Change in Private Payrolls | 145k | — | 111k | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 4k | — | 3k | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4.10% | — | 4.10% | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.2 | — | 34.1 | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Unemployment Rate | 4.00% | — | 4.00% | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.60% | — | 62.60% | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.50% | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Consumer Credit | $15.500b | — | $40.847b | — |
| 3/10/2025 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | — | — | 3.00% | — |
| 3/11/2025 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | — | — | 102.8 | — |
| 3/11/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings | — | — | 7600k | — |
| 3/11/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings Rate | — | — | 4.50% | — |
| 3/11/2025 | JOLTS Quits Level | — | — | 3197k | — |
| 3/11/2025 | JOLTS Quits Rate | — | — | 2.00% | — |
| 3/11/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Level | — | — | 1771k | — |
| 3/11/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Rate | — | — | 1.10% | — |
