It’s been another choppy session so far for Treasuries, with front-end yields down 8 basis points (bps) following the release of the February ADP employment report.
The latter showed private payrolls adding just 77,000 jobs last month versus expectations of 140,000 jobs added, but the ADP report hasn’t always been the best predictor of the nonfarm payrolls report later in the week. S&P 500 futures are essentially flat a little less than an hour before the open. The index posted a -2.95% return over the prior two trading sessions on trade war concerns. Futures popped higher following yesterday’s close after Commerce Secretary Lutnick seemed to open the door to easing the new restrictions on Mexico and Canada, seemingly in response to the market selloff. The VIX Index, which tracks implied volatility in S&P 500 options, has surged 52% since February 20. Over that same timeframe, investment-grade and high-yield corporate bond spreads have widened 9 bps and 33 bps, respectively.
The recent rally in long-end Treasuries has fueled increased refinance activity in the mortgage market. The MBA mortgage activity index rose 20.4% last week, boosted by a 37% increase in refi applications and a 9% increase in purchase applications. This coincided with a 15 bps decline in the average 30-year conventional contract rate to 6.73%, the lowest in nearly 3 months. While still a fraction of what was experienced in the aftermath of Covid, the MBA refi index is now at the highest level since October, and VA loan refi applications surged 75% last week, a loan category that is typically much more sensitive to rate changes from a refi perspective.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 3/5/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 20.40% | -1.20% | -6.40% |
| 3/5/2025 | ADP Employment Change | 140k | 77k | 183k | 186k |
| 3/5/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 49.7 | — | 49.7 | — |
| 3/5/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | 50.4 | — | 50.4 | — |
| 3/5/2025 | Factory Orders | 1.70% | — | -0.90% | — |
| 3/5/2025 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 3/5/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | 3.10% | — | 3.10% | — |
| 3/5/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.00% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 3/5/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.80% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 3/5/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | -0.30% | — | -0.30% | — |
| 3/5/2025 | ISM Services Index | 52.5 | — | 52.8 | — |
| 3/5/2025 | ISM Services Prices Paid | 60.4 | — | 60.4 | — |
| 3/5/2025 | ISM Services New Orders | 51.5 | — | 51.3 | — |
| 3/5/2025 | ISM Services Employment | 51.6 | — | 52.3 | — |
| 3/5/2025 | Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 3/6/2025 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | -39.50% | — |
| 3/6/2025 | Trade Balance | -$128.8b | — | -$98.4b | — |
| 3/6/2025 | Nonfarm Productivity | 1.20% | — | 1.20% | — |
| 3/6/2025 | Unit Labor Costs | 3.00% | — | 3.00% | — |
| 3/6/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 233k | — | 242k | — |
| 3/6/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1877k | — | 1862k | — |
| 3/6/2025 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | 0.60% | — | 1.00% | — |
| 3/6/2025 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.70% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 160k | — | 143k | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | 100k | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Change in Private Payrolls | 145k | — | 111k | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 3k | — | 3k | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4.10% | — | 4.10% | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.2 | — | 34.1 | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Unemployment Rate | 4.00% | — | 4.00% | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.60% | — | 62.60% | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.50% | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Consumer Credit | $15.000b | — | $40.847b | — |
| 3/10/2025 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | — | — | 3.00% | — |
| 3/11/2025 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | — | — | 102.8 | — |
| 3/11/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings | — | — | 7600k | — |
| 3/11/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings Rate | — | — | 4.50% | — |
| 3/11/2025 | JOLTS Quits Level | — | — | 3197k | — |
| 3/11/2025 | JOLTS Quits Rate | — | — | 2.00% | — |
| 3/11/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Level | — | — | 1771k | — |
| 3/11/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Rate | — | — | 1.10% | — |
| 3/12/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 20.40% | — |
| 3/12/2025 | CPI MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 3/12/2025 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 3/12/2025 | CPI YoY | 3.00% | — | 3.00% | — |
| 3/12/2025 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 3.20% | — | 3.30% | — |
| 3/12/2025 | CPI Index NSA | 319.196 | — | 317.671 | — |
| 3/12/2025 | CPI Core Index SA | — | — | 324.739 | — |
| 3/12/2025 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 1.00% | — |
| 3/12/2025 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.70% | — |
| 3/12/2025 | Federal Budget Balance | — | — | -$128.6b | — |
