Treasuries are little changed ahead of the January JOLTS report and Fed Chair Powell’s semiannual testimony before Congress.
Regarding the former, job openings are expected to have fallen from 9.026 million to 8.85 million in January. Powell’s prepared remarks for this morning’s appearance have already been released, and they reiterate that the central bank is in no rush to cut rates until they have more confidence that inflation is under control. The MBA mortgage applications index rose 9.7% last week, the first increase in a month. Purchase applications were up 10.6% w/w, while refinance applications rose 8.1%. The increased application activity came despite only a 2-4 basis point decline in average conventional contract rates for fixed-rate mortgages, according to the MBA survey.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 3/6/2024 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 9.70% | -5.60% | — |
| 3/6/2024 | ADP Employment Change | 150k | 140k | 107k | 111k |
| 3/6/2024 | Revisions: JOLTS | ||||
| 3/6/2024 | JOLTS Job Openings | 8850k | — | 9026k | — |
| 3/6/2024 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | -0.10% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 3/6/2024 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 3/6/2024 | Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 3/7/2024 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | -20.00% | — |
| 3/7/2024 | Trade Balance | -$63.5b | — | -$62.2b | — |
| 3/7/2024 | Nonfarm Productivity | 3.10% | — | 3.20% | — |
| 3/7/2024 | Unit Labor Costs | 0.70% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 3/7/2024 | Initial Jobless Claims | 217k | — | 215k | — |
| 3/7/2024 | Continuing Claims | 1880k | — | 1905k | — |
| 3/7/2024 | Household Change in Net Worth | — | — | -$1312b | — |
| 3/7/2024 | Consumer Credit | $10.000b | — | $1.561b | — |
| 3/8/2024 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | 126k | — |
| 3/8/2024 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 200k | — | 353k | — |
| 3/8/2024 | Change in Private Payrolls | 160k | — | 317k | — |
| 3/8/2024 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 7k | — | 23k | — |
| 3/8/2024 | Unemployment Rate | 3.70% | — | 3.70% | — |
| 3/8/2024 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 3/8/2024 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4.30% | — | 4.50% | — |
| 3/8/2024 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.3 | — | 34.1 | — |
| 3/8/2024 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.60% | — | 62.50% | — |
| 3/8/2024 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.20% | — |
| 3/11/2024 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | — | — | 3.00% | — |
| 3/12/2024 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | — | — | 89.9 | — |
| 3/12/2024 | CPI MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 3/12/2024 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 3/12/2024 | CPI YoY | 3.10% | — | 3.10% | — |
| 3/12/2024 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 3.70% | — | 3.90% | — |
| 3/12/2024 | CPI Index NSA | — | — | 308.417 | — |
| 3/12/2024 | CPI Core Index SA | — | — | 314.438 | — |
| 3/12/2024 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | -0.10% | — |
| 3/12/2024 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 1.40% | — |
| 3/12/2024 | Monthly Budget Statement | — | — | -$21.9b | — |
| 3/13/2024 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 9.70% | — |
