The Treasury curve steepened overnight, and long-end yields remain 2-3 bps higher while front-end yields are 3-4 bps lower.
Initial jobless claims fell to 221,000 last week after surging to 242,000 the week prior, suggesting the latter was driven more by seasonal factors. The U.S. trade deficit surged 34% to a record $131.4 billion in January as companies front-ran impending tariffs. Exports from Canada hit a record for a second consecutive month, driven by shipments of cars, auto parts, and oil. A widening trade deficit subtracts from GDP, which is why most economists have sharply lowered their Q1 forecasts. That said, $20.5 billion of the increased deficit was attributable to gold imports, which are typically excluded from the GDP calculation (considered investment activity).
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 3/6/2025 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | 103.20% | -39.50% | — |
| 3/6/2025 | Trade Balance | -$128.8b | -$131.4b | -$98.4b | -$98.1b |
| 3/6/2025 | Nonfarm Productivity | 1.20% | 1.50% | 1.20% | — |
| 3/6/2025 | Unit Labor Costs | 3.00% | 2.20% | 3.00% | — |
| 3/6/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 233k | 221k | 242k | — |
| 3/6/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1874k | 1897k | 1862k | 1855k |
| 3/6/2025 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | 0.50% | — | 1.00% | — |
| 3/6/2025 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.70% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 160k | — | 143k | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | 100k | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Change in Private Payrolls | 146k | — | 111k | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 3k | — | 3k | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4.10% | — | 4.10% | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.2 | — | 34.1 | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Unemployment Rate | 4.00% | — | 4.00% | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.60% | — | 62.60% | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.50% | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Consumer Credit | $15.000b | — | $40.847b | — |
| 3/10/2025 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | — | — | 3.00% | — |
| 3/11/2025 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 100.9 | — | 102.8 | — |
| 3/11/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings | — | — | 7600k | — |
| 3/11/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings Rate | — | — | 4.50% | — |
| 3/11/2025 | JOLTS Quits Level | — | — | 3197k | — |
| 3/11/2025 | JOLTS Quits Rate | — | — | 2.00% | — |
| 3/11/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Level | — | — | 1771k | — |
| 3/11/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Rate | — | — | 1.10% | — |
| 3/12/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 20.40% | — |
| 3/12/2025 | CPI MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 3/12/2025 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 3/12/2025 | CPI YoY | 2.90% | — | 3.00% | — |
| 3/12/2025 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 3.20% | — | 3.30% | — |
| 3/12/2025 | CPI Index NSA | 319.196 | — | 317.671 | — |
| 3/12/2025 | CPI Core Index SA | — | — | 324.739 | — |
| 3/12/2025 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 1.00% | — |
| 3/12/2025 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.70% | — |
| 3/12/2025 | Federal Budget Balance | — | — | -$128.6b | — |
| 3/13/2025 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 3/13/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 3/13/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 3/13/2025 | PPI Final Demand YoY | — | — | 3.50% | — |
| 3/13/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | — | — | 3.60% | — |
| 3/13/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 3.40% | — |
| 3/13/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 221k | — |
| 3/13/2025 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1897k | — |
| 3/13/2025 | Household Change in Net Worth | — | — | $4766b | — |
