Treasury yields are starting the day 2-3 basis points lower following strong government bond auctions in France and Spain overnight. Fed Chair Powell stuck to the script yesterday and didn’t appear to express a more hawkish tone in response to the January CPI and jobs reports. He continues his Congressional testimony today, appearing before the Senate Banking Committee. Yesterday’s January JOLTS report showed job openings falling essentially in line with expectations but still holding above historical norms. Initial jobless claims held steady last week at 217,000, and the European Central Bank chose to keep rates unchanged today, as expected, and now expects to reach its 2% inflation goal in 2025.
Jason Haley Chief Investment Officer
Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised 3/7/2024 Challenger Job Cuts YoY — 8.80% -20.00% — 3/7/2024 Trade Balance -$63.5b -$67.4b -$62.2b -$64.2b 3/7/2024 Nonfarm Productivity 3.10% 3.20% 3.20% — 3/7/2024 Unit Labor Costs 0.70% 0.40% 0.50% — 3/7/2024 Initial Jobless Claims 216k 217k 215k 217k 3/7/2024 Continuing Claims 1880k 1906k 1905k 1898k 3/7/2024 Household Change in Net Worth — — -$1312b — 3/7/2024 Consumer Credit $10.000b — $1.561b — 3/8/2024 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision — — 126k — 3/8/2024 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 200k — 353k — 3/8/2024 Change in Private Payrolls 160k — 317k — 3/8/2024 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 7k — 23k — 3/8/2024 Unemployment Rate 3.70% — 3.70% — 3/8/2024 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.20% — 0.60% — 3/8/2024 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 4.30% — 4.50% — 3/8/2024 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.3 — 34.1 — 3/8/2024 Labor Force Participation Rate 62.60% — 62.50% — 3/8/2024 Underemployment Rate — — 7.20% —
Jason Haley Chief Investment Officer
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