The U.S. labor market showed mixed signals Friday morning.
According to the latest jobs reports, non-farm payrolls increased 151,000 in February following a downward revision to the January estimate. Yet, the unemployment rate rose to 4.1% (versus 4.0% expected). In light of the policies of the new Presidential administration, Government payrolls advanced at the slowest pace in nearly 12 months, and federal payrolls reached their lowest point in almost 3 years (June 2022). This was the first jobs report to fully reflect the beginning of President Trump’s second term, with some economists now suggesting the U.S. could shed some 500,000 jobs by year-end due to the “DOGE” initiatives and federal job cuts. The rise in unemployment was driven by both a 2-year low in the labor force participation rate, and an increase in permanent job losses. Treasury yields rallied in the immediate aftermath, dropping 2-4 bps across the curve.
Michael Oravetz
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 3/7/2025 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | -2k | 100k | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 160k | 151k | 143k | 125k |
| 3/7/2025 | Change in Private Payrolls | 145k | 140k | 111k | 81k |
| 3/7/2025 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 3k | 10k | 3k | -5k |
| 3/7/2025 | Unemployment Rate | 4.00% | 4.10% | 4.00% | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.50% | 0.40% |
| 3/7/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4.10% | 4.00% | 4.10% | 3.90% |
| 3/7/2025 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.2 | 34.1 | 34.1 | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.60% | 62.40% | 62.60% | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Underemployment Rate | — | 8.00% | 7.50% | — |
| 3/7/2025 | Consumer Credit | $14.900b | — | $40.847b | — |
| 3/10/2025 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | — | — | 3.00% | — |
| 3/11/2025 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 101 | — | 102.8 | — |
| 3/11/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings | — | — | 7600k | — |
| 3/11/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings Rate | — | — | 4.50% | — |
| 3/11/2025 | JOLTS Quits Level | — | — | 3197k | — |
| 3/11/2025 | JOLTS Quits Rate | — | — | 2.00% | — |
| 3/11/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Level | — | — | 1771k | — |
| 3/11/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Rate | — | — | 1.10% | — |
| 3/12/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 20.40% | — |
| 3/12/2025 | CPI MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 3/12/2025 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 3/12/2025 | CPI YoY | 2.90% | — | 3.00% | — |
| 3/12/2025 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 3.20% | — | 3.30% | — |
| 3/12/2025 | CPI Index NSA | 319.185 | — | 317.671 | — |
| 3/12/2025 | CPI Core Index SA | — | — | 324.739 | — |
| 3/12/2025 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 1.00% | 0.90% |
| 3/12/2025 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.70% | 0.60% |
| 3/12/2025 | Federal Budget Balance | — | — | -$128.6b | — |
| 3/13/2025 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 3/13/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 3/13/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 3/13/2025 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 3.30% | — | 3.50% | — |
| 3/13/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | — | — | 3.60% | — |
| 3/13/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 3.40% | — |
| 3/13/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 221k | — |
| 3/13/2025 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1897k | — |
| 3/13/2025 | Household Change in Net Worth | — | — | $4766b | — |
| 3/14/2025 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 63.9 | — | 64.7 | — |
| 3/14/2025 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 65.7 | — |
| 3/14/2025 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 64 | — |
| 3/14/2025 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 4.30% | — |
| 3/14/2025 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 3.50% | — |
