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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Nonfarm payrolls added 275,000 jobs in February, 75,000 more than expected.

However, other metrics within the report were softer. For payrolls growth, there was a 167,000 downward revision to the prior two months’ job growth (mostly the January figure). Additionally, the headline unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed 20 basis points (bps) to 3.9%, and average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% m/m, the lowest monthly growth rate since February 2022. Offsetting the lower wage growth figure somewhat was an increase in the average workweek to 34.3 hours. On a year-over-year basis, average hourly earnings rose 4.3%, as expected. The increase in the headline unemployment rate was attributable to a 183,000 decline in household employment while the official labor force grew by 150,000. Overall, it was a mixed report, and markets are initially reacting more to the negative aspects, with Treasury yields currently down 5-6 bps on the front-end of the curve.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
03/08/24Two-Month Payroll Net Revision—-167k——
03/08/24Change in Nonfarm Payrolls200k275k353k229k
03/08/24Change in Private Payrolls165k223k317k177k
03/08/24Change in Manufact. Payrolls7k-4k23k8k
03/08/24Unemployment Rate3.70%3.90%3.70%—
03/08/24Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.20%0.10%0.60%0.50%
03/08/24Average Hourly Earnings YoY4.30%4.30%4.50%4.40%
03/08/24Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.334.334.134.2
03/08/24Labor Force Participation Rate62.60%62.50%62.50%—
03/08/24Underemployment Rate—7.30%7.20%—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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