The FOMC will conclude its policy meeting this afternoon, and while no change in the fed funds target range is expected, market participants will be paying close attention to Fed Chair Powell’s press conference that follows.
As we began the year, fed funds futures were priced for nearly 160 basis points (bps) of rate cuts in 2024. As we begin the month of May, that figure has slimmed dramatically to just 25 bps (one rate cut in December). This repricing of Fed expectations has come with a sharp selloff in Treasuries this year, including a 50 bps increase in the 5-year note yield in April alone. Two things to watch for today will be Powell’s response to the almost certain question of whether rate hikes are back on the table, as well as any potential announced changes to the Fed’s pace of balance sheet reduction. Regarding the latter, Powell hinted that such an announcement could come “fairly soon,” which typically means either this meeting or the next one in June. Regardless, markets shouldn’t be caught off guard. Later this morning, the March JOLTS report will be released, which is expected to show a modest decline in job openings from 8.75 million to 8.68 million. Treasury yields are currently 2-3 bps lower to start the day.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 5/1/2024 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -2.30% | -2.70% | — |
| 5/1/2024 | ADP Employment Change | 183k | 192k | 184k | 208k |
| 5/1/2024 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 49.9 | — | 49.9 | — |
| 5/1/2024 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.30% | — | -0.30% | — |
| 5/1/2024 | JOLTS Job Openings | 8680k | — | 8756k | — |
| 5/1/2024 | ISM Manufacturing | 50 | — | 50.3 | — |
| 5/1/2024 | ISM Prices Paid | 55.4 | — | 55.8 | — |
| 5/1/2024 | ISM New Orders | 51 | — | 51.4 | — |
| 5/1/2024 | ISM Employment | 48.2 | — | 47.4 | — |
| 5/1/2024 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 5.50% | — | 5.50% | — |
| 5/1/2024 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 5.25% | — | 5.25% | — |
| 5/1/2024 | Interest on Reserve Balances Rate | 5.40% | — | 5.40% | — |
| 5/1/2024 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 15.70m | — | 15.49m | — |
| 5/2/2024 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 0.70% | — |
| 5/2/2024 | Nonfarm Productivity | 0.70% | — | 3.30% | — |
| 5/2/2024 | Trade Balance | -$69.7b | — | -$68.9b | — |
| 5/2/2024 | Unit Labor Costs | 3.60% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 5/2/2024 | Initial Jobless Claims | 211k | — | 207k | — |
| 5/2/2024 | Continuing Claims | 1793k | — | 1781k | — |
| 5/2/2024 | Factory Orders | 1.60% | — | 1.40% | — |
| 5/2/2024 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 1.10% | — |
| 5/2/2024 | Durable Goods Orders | 2.60% | — | 2.60% | — |
| 5/2/2024 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 5/2/2024 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 5/2/2024 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 5/3/2024 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | 22k | — |
| 5/3/2024 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 240k | — | 303k | — |
| 5/3/2024 | Change in Private Payrolls | 190k | — | 232k | — |
| 5/3/2024 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 5k | — | 0k | — |
| 5/3/2024 | Unemployment Rate | 3.80% | — | 3.80% | — |
| 5/3/2024 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 5/3/2024 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4.00% | — | 4.10% | — |
| 5/3/2024 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.4 | — | 34.4 | — |
| 5/3/2024 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.70% | — | 62.70% | — |
| 5/3/2024 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.30% | — |
| 5/3/2024 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 50.9 | — | 50.9 | — |
| 5/3/2024 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | 50.9 | — | 50.9 | — |
| 5/3/2024 | ISM Services Index | 52 | — | 51.4 | — |
| 5/3/2024 | ISM Services Prices Paid | — | — | 53.4 | — |
| 5/3/2024 | ISM Services Employment | — | — | 48.5 | — |
| 5/3/2024 | ISM Services New Orders | — | — | 54.4 | — |
| 5/6/2024 | Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices | ||||
| 5/7/2024 | Consumer Credit | $15.500b | — | $14.125b | — |
| 5/8/2024 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -2.30% | — |
| 5/8/2024 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | 2.30% | — |
| 5/8/2024 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | — | — | -0.40% | — |
